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GDX Call Spread Traders Capture 9% Gain on 2,550-Lot Bet After Stock Jumps 3.43%
A sizeable call spread trade in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) hit the tape on December 11, 2025, just before 10am. The transaction stood out not just for its volume—2,550 contracts—but also for the speed at which it paid off: by 11:30am, the value of the spread was up 9% as GDX itself rallied over 3% from the trade’s reference price.
Key Trade Details: $372K Bet Could Pay $265K in 8 Days
This high-conviction position was structured as an 82-87 call spread expiring December 19, 2025, and bought for an average price of $2.92 per spread (see table below for all details). The trader invested over $372,000 and stands to make up to $265,000 if GDX closes at or above $87 by expiration—just eight days from the trade date.
| Expiration | Strikes | Contracts | VWAP Trade Price | VWAP Bid | VWAP Ask | Stock Reference | Current Spread Price | % Gain | Max Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19-Dec-25 | 82-87 Call Spread | 2,550 | $2.92 | $2.53 | $3.23 | $84.09 | $3.18 | 9.0% | ~$265K |
For further analysis on multi-leg trades like this, check out the GDX multi-leg trade analyzer.
Technicals Are Strong: GDX Uptrends Versus Major Averages and Market Indexes
Recent trading has seen GDX break through key averages with a vengeance. As of the trade, GDX was priced at $86.18, up 3.43% on the day and 157.9% off its 52-week low. The ETF trades 9.2% above its 20-day, 12.4% above its 50-day, and an eye-popping 57.4% over its 250-day moving average—clearly signaling a strong uptrend across all technical timeframes.
Momentum isn’t just relative to itself: GDX is dramatically outperforming the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) on nearly every recent metric, whether it’s the past year, quarter, or even two-week window. Over the last year, GDX gained 128.2% while SPY added 14.8%—that’s almost a 9x performance gap. Below is a breakdown of returns across durations:
| Duration | GDX Return | Low | High | SPY Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +3.5% | 83.12 | 86.22 | -0.4% |
| 2 Week | +5.8% | 79.07 | 86.22 | +0.8% |
| 1 Month | +13.5% | 72.45 | 86.22 | +0.5% |
| 3 Month | +25.9% | 67.26 | 86.22 | +5.3% |
| 6 Month | +67.7% | 50.32 | 86.22 | +14.2% |
| 1 Year | +128.2% | 33.42 | 86.22 | +14.8% |
| YTD | +154.4% | 34.44 | 86.22 | +17.8% |
| 3 Year | +204.8% | 25.62 | 86.22 | +79.5% |
| 5 Year | +155.0% | 21.52 | 86.22 | +95.7% |
Skew Indicators Signal Slightly Bullish Market Sentiment
The 30-day implied volatility skew—an options-based measure of sentiment—ranks at a 68% percentile versus its last 52 weeks, leaning slightly bullish. This means that, according to options pricing, traders are paying a relative premium for upside potential. That dovetails with both the bullish call spread structure and GDX’s current technical momentum.
What Could Happen Next? Why This Trade Could Matter
To maximize their payout, the call spread buyers need GDX to close at or above $87 by expiration. With only a modest further move needed (GDX was already at $86.18 at 11:30am), this could prove an achievable target, especially if the current momentum holds. The sizable capital commitment also suggests strong conviction behind the trade, perhaps based on expectations of further bullish developments for gold miners or underlying catalysts yet to play out.
For readers interested in tracking more call spreads or researching other multi-leg strategies, check out the multi-leg trade screener.
Takeaway: Momentum and Sentiment Support the Bullish Bet, But Execution Is Key
While we don’t know if this trade was pure speculation or a nuanced hedge, it’s clear that technical strength and options market signals are supporting a bullish tilt. With less than a week until expiration and just a small further rally required for full profit, this trade may serve as a case study in how momentum and sentiment can align for sharp, short-term opportunities in the options market.
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