Click to view the earnings moves in HAFN
HAFN Drops After Q3 Results—But What Does History Tell Us About What Comes Next?
If you’re watching Hafnia Limited (HAFN), you’ve already seen today’s 2.3% dip following its latest quarterly earnings report. At first glance, it might look like just another volatile reaction—but if history is any guide, earnings day could be setting the stage for an interesting rebound.
Unpacking Today’s News
Hafnia, one of the world’s largest product tanker companies, announced a net profit of $91.5 million for the third quarter of 2025—its best result so far this year, though sharply down from last year’s record. Despite a dividend payout and positive outlook from management, the market greeted the update with a quick selloff, sending shares to $5.86, down 2.3% on the day. That’s not far off the options market’s implied move of ±6.3% going into earnings.
For investors and traders, the big question now is: Is this the beginning of a deeper slide—or will HAFN snap back, as it so often has post-earnings?
What History Says About HAFN on Earnings Days
To find clues, let’s turn to the numbers. Looking back at the past 12 quarters, here’s how HAFN typically behaves around earnings announcements:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.8% | -2.4% | +3.0% | -1.4% | +1.5% |
| % of Moves Up | 42.9% | 28.6% | 85.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 57.1% | 71.4% | 14.3% |
See the full earnings price move statistics for HAFN here.
So what jumps out? First, the average immediate reaction to earnings day is a small decline, but more than 85% of the time, HAFN manages to climb from the open to the close. While initial gaps (open versus prior close) tend to be negative (-2.4% on average), intraday recoveries are common—with the stock bouncing off the lows to finish strong in the majority of cases.
How Big Are the Earnings Day Moves?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% |
| Max Absolute Return | 14.6% | 11.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
On average, the swings aren’t extreme (about 4.6% move on earnings days), but outsized jumps of up to 14.6% have happened.
Post-Earnings Performance: Does the Stock Tend to Recover?
If you’re wondering what happens after the dust settles, historical data suggests a clear bias to the upside—especially in the week following earnings:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.1% | +0.7% | +1.2% | +4.7% | +1.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 83.3% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 100.0% | 83.3% |
| % of Moves Down | 16.7% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
The takeaway? Over the last dozen earnings cycles, HAFN delivered positive returns in 83.3% of cases one day after earnings—and every single time a week later, the stock was higher.
Is History Poised to Repeat?
Today’s negative initial reaction is not out of the ordinary for HAFN. If the past is any indication, buyers tend to step in, and the odds have strongly favored a recovery—especially in the days after results. However, it’s always worth noting that while historical trends are powerful guides, they don’t guarantee the future. Given ongoing volatility in the tanker sector and global markets, surprises can—and do—happen.
If you’re curious to dig even deeper, you can explore more granular statistics, patterns, and price charts for HAFN’s past earnings moves on the official Historical Earnings Price Movement page.
Final Thought
Will this quarter’s post-earnings script play out like the last dozen—moving higher after the dust settles? With seasonal and market tailwinds in the tanker sector, the odds look interesting. As always, savvy investors will watch the next few sessions closely.
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