Click to view the earnings moves in MANU
Did Manchester United's (MANU) Latest Earnings Change the Game for Traders?
Manchester United (NYSE: MANU) just reported first quarter results for fiscal 2026, posting total revenues of £140.3 million and an operating profit of £13.0 million—a swing from an operating loss in the year-ago period. While these figures might not be eye-popping, the real intrigue for traders often lies in how the stock historically behaves around earnings and how today’s activity stacks up.
Stock Moves Around Earnings: Steady, With a Few Wild Cards
If you’ve ever tried to play the earnings game with MANU, you know the swings aren’t always predictable. Let’s look at the historical data to see if there’s a playbook. On average over the last 12 quarters, MANU has delivered a modest +1.3% move on earnings days, with a perfect 50/50 split between up and down days. The stock typically gaps slightly lower at the open, but often recovers, closing the day with an average gain. Even more interesting, those opening drops (-0.8% on average) often reverse into the afternoon, with open-to-close moves averaging +2.1%.
What does that mean? Even if the market wakes up grumpy on MANU’s results, there’s a real chance for afternoon comebacks. The historical moves to the day’s highs (+3.9%) outweigh drops to the day’s lows (-3.2%), showing some underlying resilience.
Historical Earnings Day Performance
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.3% | -0.8% | +3.9% | -3.2% | +2.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 66.7% | 50.0% |
Want to dig deeper into how MANU reacts around earnings events? Check out the full earnings history and stats page here.
How Big Do Earnings Moves Get? Absolute Returns and Outliers
Sometimes, it’s not just about direction—it’s about the size of the swing. Here’s a snapshot of MANU’s biggest and smallest moves on earnings day (every number here gets the num_na class for consistency):
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 5.0% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% |
| Max Absolute Return | 18.8% | 5.2% | 15.9% | 6.3% | 15.4% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
This means the stock usually keeps things between the lines, but there have been outlier moves of nearly 19% on earnings day—something every trader should have on their radar, especially if the crowd is expecting a muted reaction (options market pricing was ±2.4% for this event).
What Happens After Earnings? The Next Two Weeks at a Glance
Thinking about the days ahead? Here’s what history suggests:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.7% | +0.3% | +0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 63.6% | 63.6% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 36.4% | 36.4% | 54.5% | 63.6% | 45.5% |
The upshot: MANU stock has a slightly better-than-even chance of closing higher the next day and through day two post-earnings, but it has been weaker one week out. The drift in returns suggests short-term momentum can quickly fade after the initial event excitement.
Today’s Option Activity: One Bet Stands Out
Today saw 287 MANU option contracts trade hands, roughly in line with recent activity, and the most popular single-leg contract tells a subtle story. The most actively traded was a 19-Dec-25 15.5 Put, which traded 95 times—worth noting for traders seeking hedges or positioning for post-earnings drift.
| Option Contract | 19-Dec-25 15.5 P |
| Volume | 95 |
| VWAP price | 0.30 |
| Open interest | 1 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.78 |
The Bottom Line: Will History Repeat or Surprise?
Manchester United’s shares closed up 2.4% today—almost exactly matching what the options market priced in for this report. That said, if history is any guide, traders may want to watch for moves from the open through the close (average drift: +2.1%) and keep an eye on short-term reversals, given how often the stock has recovered from negative opens.
Will MANU continue its historical pattern, or does this quarter signal a change in the trend? For those betting on the next move—either through stock or options—this is one of those times when a look back could provide an edge. Curious for more granular data? See every historical earnings-day move for MANU here.
Contact Information:
If you have feedback or concerns about the content, please feel free to reach out to us via email at support@marketchameleon.com.
About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:
Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.
NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.
Disclosure: This article was generated with the assistance of AI