Click to view the earnings moves in DLTH
Stock Sinks After Earnings: Is History on DLTH’s Side?
Shares of Duluth Holdings - Class B (NASDAQ: DLTH) cratered by -20.1% after the company reported its latest quarterly results—stunning both investors and the options market, which had only priced in a ±7.7% move. With this outsized drop, traders are wondering: Does the past offer clues for what’s next?
Today's Move Shocks, But Is It Really Out of the Ordinary?
Today's steep decline stands out, especially after the previous quarter saw an astonishing +52.1% move on earnings day—underscoring just how volatile DLTH can be around its financial releases. While options volume was 401 contracts today (noticeably active for the stock), this kind of movement is far from routine—even for DLTH. To put things in perspective, here’s how the stock has typically behaved on earnings day, drawn from the last 12 quarterly events.
Historical Stock Moves on Earnings Day
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.0% | +3.9% | +9.0% | -9.8% | -3.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 41.7% | 58.3% | 33.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 58.3% | 33.3% | 58.3% |
Over the last three years, the average earnings day move has actually been fairly muted at +1.0%. Yet the downside bias is clear—DLTH dropped on 58.3% of earnings days, and even after positive open gaps (+3.9% on average), it tends to fade into the close (averaging -3.0% from open to close).
Magnitude of Historical Moves: Just How Wild Does It Get?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 13.3% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% |
| Max Absolute Return | 52.1% | 29.4% | 64.7% | 30.9% | 26.9% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
What really jumps out: While the average earnings day swing is 13.3%, huge outliers aren’t rare (like last quarter’s 52.1% pop and today’s 20.1% drop). Volatility, in other words, is par for the course.
How Has DLTH Performed After Earnings?
Do massive earnings-day drops create buying opportunities? Here’s how DLTH typically behaves in the days and weeks after its reports:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.6% | +0.6% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -2.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 45.5% | 63.6% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 54.5% | 36.4% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% |
Statistically, there’s been a slight post-earnings rebound, with average returns of +1.6% on day one and +0.6% on day two after earnings—but these bounce-backs have rarely lasted. By two weeks post-earnings, DLTH actually averages a -2.0% loss.
For even more historical stats and granular details, you can review DLTH’s earnings-day stock movement history.
What Are Traders Betting On? Today’s Top Option Trade
Options traders jumped in today, with total option volume at 401 contracts—well above normal for this name. The single most popular contract? A call expiring in December 2025 with a $2.50 strike:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 19-Dec-25 2.5 C |
| Volume | 264 |
| VWAP price | 0.31 |
| Open interest | 383 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.65 |
This heavy activity—most of it in a long-dated out-of-the-money call—may reflect traders betting on a rebound, hedging losses, or speculating that the worst is now behind DLTH. Given today’s collapse, anyone buying these calls is banking on a turnaround over the next year, despite the lack of consistent bounce in DLTH’s historical record.
What’s Next? Risks and Questions After a Huge Move
Today's selloff was triggered despite news that pointed to improving profitability, reduced inventory, and an optimistic EBITDA outlook. Yet, as past quarters show, DLTH stock can be unpredictable—and even sharp drops haven’t always meant a quick comeback. Post-earnings moves often get retraced, but the long-term track record after steep declines is mixed.
The takeaway? While volatility in DLTH is the norm, historic post-earnings data suggests any relief rallies may be short-lived. If you’re following the stock, pay close attention to option activity and management commentary in the coming days, and explore more historical performance here to make sense of what could come next.
Contact Information:
If you have feedback or concerns about the content, please feel free to reach out to us via email at support@marketchameleon.com.
About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:
Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.
NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.
Disclosure: This article was generated with the assistance of AI