Click to view the earnings moves in PGR
Progressive Sinks on Earnings: Is the Downward Drift Just Getting Started?
Progressive (PGR) shares dropped sharply today, slipping -4.1% following its November 2025 earnings report—almost doubling the ±2.3% move that the options market had priced in. If this feels familiar, it's because history suggests PGR has a well-worn path of stumbling on earnings days.
Earnings Recap and Key Financials
The earnings release highlighted double-digit premium growth, but profits fell compared to last year. Net premiums written rose by 11% and net premiums earned were up 14%, yet net income slipped 5% and per-share earnings dropped from $1.71 to $1.63. Meanwhile, Progressive's combined ratio ticked up to 87.1, up from 85.6 the prior year, suggesting higher losses relative to premiums earned.
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Premiums Written | $6,193M | $5,563M | +11% |
| Net Premiums Earned | $6,894M | $6,040M | +14% |
| Net Income | $958M | $1,006M | -5% |
| EPS | $1.63 | $1.71 | -5% |
| Pretax Net Realized Gains (Losses) | $32M | $175M | -82% |
| Combined Ratio | 87.1 | 85.6 | +1.5 pts |
Historical Stock Performance: Do the Numbers Favor the Bears?
Here’s where it gets interesting: Progressive's history on earnings day tells a cautionary tale for anyone expecting quick rebounds. Over the last 12 quarters, PGR has averaged a -1.2% move on earnings day. Only a quarter of those sessions saw a gain—75% of earnings days ended in the red. And when it comes to the opening gap and full-day moves, the data skews similarly negative.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -1.2% | -0.6% | +0.8% | -1.9% | -0.5% |
| % of Moves Up | 25.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 75.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% |
Want the full historical earnings breakdown? Check out the detailed statistics at Progressive Earnings Stock Performance.
Magnitude and Extremes: Just How Wild Can Earnings Get?
If you’re more interested in how big those earnings-day moves can get, the numbers are revealing. The maximum absolute move over the last 12 quarters reached as high as 5.8% on earnings day, while even the quietest earnings saw a 0.2% swing.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Max Absolute Return | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
What Happens After the Earnings Dust Settles?
Don’t expect a snapback rally right away. Historically, the one-day, three-day, and even one-week post-earnings windows have leaned negative. Only at the two-week mark has the stock, on average, managed to grind back into positive territory (+0.7%). Still, upward moves after earnings are less common, and one week after, nearly two-thirds of observations are losses.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.3% | +0.1% | -0.4% | -0.1% | +0.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 54.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 45.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% | 36.4% |
Today's Options Spotlight: The 19-Dec-25 225 Put
Despite PGR’s elevated volatility, options activity was relatively subdued with a total volume of 119 contracts traded. The single most active contract today? The 19-Dec-25 225 P put. Here's how that trade stacked up:
| Option Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 19-Dec-25 225 P |
| Volume | 31 |
| VWAP Price | $3.50 |
| Open Interest | 241 |
| Yesterday's Close | $7.55 |
The Takeaway: More Downside or Oversold?
Progressive’s steep earnings-day drop isn’t out of character based on its recent history. While growth metrics are robust, margin pressure and recurring post-earnings slumps paint a mixed picture. Will this earnings drop mark a floor or just the start of another downward leg? If history is any guide, volatility could linger—and traders would be wise to watch the days and weeks ahead for signs of a reversal or further slide.
Curious to dive deeper? Explore full Progressive earnings-day stock statistics here.
Contact Information:
If you have feedback or concerns about the content, please feel free to reach out to us via email at support@marketchameleon.com.
About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:
Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.
NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.
Disclosure: This article was generated with the assistance of AI