Spire Global Eyes Over 30% Revenue Growth in 2026 Despite Near-Term Headwinds
Financial Results Show Pressure from Business Transition and Revenue Timing
Spire Global's third quarter 2025 report reflects a company in transition. After selling its maritime business in April, the satellite data provider posted revenue of $12.67 million for Q3 2025, a sharp drop compared to $28.57 million a year ago. The decline, according to Spire, stems from the divestiture and delayed revenue recognition for key contracts, especially a major Earth observation data agreement now expected to boost numbers in 2026 as project milestones are hit.
Spire reported an operating loss of $21.05 million and a net loss of $19.68 million for the quarter, both worsening year-over-year. The company's adjusted EBITDA, which excludes non-cash and unusual items, came in at negative $11.77 million. With cash and marketable securities totaling $96.75 million at quarter's end and no debt, Spire’s balance sheet offers some flexibility heading into 2026.
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 12.67 | 28.57 |
| Operating Loss ($M) | 21.05 | 13.72 |
| Net Loss ($M) | 19.68 | 12.47 |
| Adjusted EBITDA ($M) | -11.77 | -3.12 |
| Cash, Equivalents & Securities ($M) | 96.75 | – |
Strong Backlog and Notable Contract Wins Signal Future Revenue Momentum
While near-term revenue fell short, Spire points to a robust pipeline, with more than $200 million in remaining performance obligations as of September 30, 2025—$70 million of which is expected to convert to revenue in 2026. During the quarter, the company secured a notable $11.2 million contract from NOAA for atmospheric data, a $2.5 million NOAA award for ocean surface winds pilot study, and a EUR 3 million contract renewal with EUMETSAT. A major contract with Deloitte will see Spire building eight additional satellites, highlighting continued demand for space-based insights in the defense and weather sectors.
Guidance Shows Lowered 2025 Outlook but Signals a Strategic Turnaround
Spire’s full-year 2025 revenue is projected in the range of $70.5 to $72.5 million, down roughly 34-36% year-over-year primarily due to the maritime divestiture and revenue recognition timing. Excluding the maritime business, the expected revenue for the ongoing operations is around $58.5 million for 2025.
However, the company now forecasts in excess of 30% revenue growth for 2026 for its continuing businesses, and is targeting adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow breakeven by no later than Q4 2026. The strategic focus includes aligning costs with revenue expectations and ramping investment in European and U.S. markets to capture growing demand.
| Metric | Q4 2025 (Low-High) | FY 2025 (Low-High) |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 14.8 - 16.8 | 70.5 - 72.5 |
| Adjusted EBITDA ($M) | -12.2 to -11.4 | -42.2 to -41.3 |
| Non-GAAP Operating Loss ($M) | -16.4 to -15.5 | -54.7 to -53.8 |
| Non-GAAP Loss Per Share ($) | -0.47 to -0.44 | -1.98 to -1.95 |
| Weighted Avg. Shares (M) | 32.8 | 30.9 |
Backlog and Strategic Contracts Lay Groundwork for a Stronger 2026
Despite short-term revenue setbacks, Spire’s ability to win large, recurring government and commercial contracts has positioned it for a rebound. The shift to high-margin, recurring data services, and expanding satellite and analytics offerings could yield operating leverage as delayed contract revenue hits the books in 2026.
For investors and analysts, the company’s path hinges on delivering program milestones and converting backlog into recognized revenue, all while maintaining financial discipline and executing its cost alignment plan. If management succeeds, 2026 could represent a major turning point in Spire’s financial profile and profitability trajectory.
Key Takeaway: Execution on Backlog Is Critical to 2026 Success
Spire Global's recent results and outlook underline the challenges of transition after a business sale but reveal clear catalysts for future growth. With a debt-free balance sheet, a sizeable backlog, and major contract wins, the stage is set for the company to potentially achieve significant revenue expansion in 2026—assuming operational milestones are met and cost management stays on course.
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