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NOG Sees $57K Bullish Call Spread—Buyers Need Just a 6.1% Pullback to Hit Maximum Profit
A surge in call spread activity for Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) lit up the options tape on December 5, 2025, as 1,354 contracts of the 22-23 call spread traded for an average of $0.83. The position was put on with just two weeks until expiration and has already shown a small profit, thanks to a $0.77 pop in NOG’s share price during early trading.
Key Trade Details: 1,354 Contracts for Dec 19, 2025 Expiry
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Spread | 22-23 Call Spread |
| Expiration | 19-Dec-25 |
| Contracts Traded | 1,354 |
| VWAP Trade Price | 0.83 |
| Current Spread Price | 0.85 |
| Days to Expiration | 14 |
| Reference Stock Price at Trade | 24.76 |
| Stock Price Now | 25.53 |
The trade’s timing and strike selection give the buyers a relatively narrow margin for success: NOG needs to hold above $23 at expiration—just a 6.1% move below the current stock price—for the spread to deliver its maximum $1.00 payoff. The buyers spent roughly $57,282 (1,354 contracts x 100 shares/contract x $0.83) for a chance at a $11,162 max gain, indicating a cautious yet bullish posture. See the full multi-leg trade analysis here.
Buyers Banking on a Limited Pullback
Unlike aggressive calls that demand big rallies, this call spread only requires NOG not to dip more than 6.1% from today’s levels by Dec 19. The trade has already gained about 1.8% in value, mirroring the $0.77 jump in share price to $25.53 since the position was put on. For investors who like odds and payouts, the risk-reward structure is fairly balanced—a limited potential loss for a capped profit, provided NOG remains above the lower strike at expiry.
Technical Indicators Are Bullish: Stock Breaks Key Resistance and Surges Above Moving Averages
Current NOG technicals lean positive:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last Price | 25.53 |
| Price Change Today | +0.89 (+3.61%) |
| Change from 20 Day MA | +14.8% |
| Change from 50 Day MA | +12.5% |
| 52-Week Low (Nov 06, 2025) | 20.48 |
| 52-Week High (Jan 16, 2025) | 42.07 |
| Fast Bullish Crossover | Yes |
The price is decisively above both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages and just cleared resistance at 25.30—suggesting momentum could persist into expiration. However, the stock is still 10.6% below its 250-day moving average, reminding traders that the longer-term trend is not fully recovered.
NOG’s Performance Outpaces the Market Short Term—But Still Trails Over the Year
| Duration | NOG Return | SPY Return |
|---|---|---|
| Today | +3.5% | +0.5% |
| 2 Weeks | +19.7% | +5.4% |
| 1 Month | +20.3% | +1.9% |
| 3 Months | -0.2% | +6.2% |
| 6 Months | -6.4% | +16.0% |
| 1 Year | -34.6% | +14.4% |
| YTD | -27.7% | +18.3% |
| 3 Years | -14.1% | +74.1% |
| 5 Years | +305.1% | +94.8% |
NOG has outperformed the S&P 500 in the past month and two weeks, showing strong short-term momentum. But its 1-year and YTD numbers still lag far behind the benchmark, with losses of 34.6% and 27.7%, respectively.
Option Skew Signals Bullish Outlook: 90% Bullish Rank
The Market Chameleon Proprietary Skew Indicator shows a 90% rank—among the most bullish postures seen over the last year. This forward-looking indicator analyzes market pricing for clues about sentiment. A high rank suggests option traders expect continued upside, or at least see downside risk as limited for now.
What Can Traders Learn?
The data behind this large call spread shows a market participant positioning for NOG to stay resilient. With technical indicators trending bullish, a 90% bullish skew, and the stock above key resistance levels, the odds appear in the spread buyer’s favor—so long as NOG avoids a pullback of more than 6% in the next two weeks. To research more call spreads and multi-leg trades, check out the screener here.
Whether this trade was a sophisticated hedge or a targeted speculation, the strategy stands out for its balance between risk and reward—anchored by a data-backed, short-term bullish stance on Northern Oil & Gas.
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