Click to view the earnings moves in VSCO
Victoria's Secret Stuns with Q3 Beat—Is This Rally Built to Last?
Victoria's Secret & Co. (NYSE: VSCO) surprised Wall Street today, jumping +13.8% after its latest earnings report blew past expectations and the company raised its full-year guidance. With net sales climbing 9% year-over-year and a strategic push across all brand segments, the mood in the options market was just as hot: traders were betting on a move of ±14.8% in either direction—right in line with what actually happened.
Breaking Down the Earnings—And Why It Matters
On the surface, it’s a celebration: sales, margins, and forward outlook all came in ahead of what analysts had hoped for. Executives touted momentum across both in-store and online channels, with solid results from iconic brands Victoria's Secret and PINK, as well as growth overseas. For many, this sounds like the kind of quarterly beat that starts a sustainable run. But seasoned traders know there’s more to the story—especially if you look at how VSCO stock typically trades after earnings announcements.
What History Tells Us About VSCO Earnings Moves
Is this 13.8% surge likely to hold, or is it a short-term pop destined to fade? Let’s turn to the numbers. Historically, Victoria’s Secret’s stock action around earnings has been anything but predictable—and generally leans negative after the initial buzz wears off.
VSCO’s Day-of-Earnings Track Record
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.8% | +0.4% | +4.1% | -5.9% | -1.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 41.7% | 58.3% | 33.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 58.3% | 41.7% | 66.7% |
Across the last 12 earnings days, VSCO stock averaged a -0.8% return with 58.3% of those sessions closing lower. Even more striking: from the opening bell to the low of the day, the average drawdown is a sobering -5.9%. The data suggests that while a big open is possible, follow-through by the end of the day is anything but certain.
How Big Are These Moves, Really?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 9.6% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% |
| Max Absolute Return | 29.7% | 26.8% | 15.7% | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% |
Those average moves highlight just how wild things can get around VSCO’s earnings days. A nearly 10% absolute swing is common—traders aren’t just hoping for excitement, they’ve gotten it. And single-day swings of nearly 30% aren’t unheard of.
Post-Earnings: Rally or Retreat?
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.0% | -2.3% | -3.5% | -1.9% | -0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 54.5% | 27.3% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 45.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 45.5% | 72.7% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 54.5% |
Perhaps the biggest takeaway: while more than half the time the stock moves up the very next day, the longer trend often goes negative—especially by day two and three, when historical averages flip solidly into the red. After the initial reaction, VSCO’s rally momentum has not lasted in the past.
If you want to dig deeper, check out the full VSCO historical earnings stock performance page.
Key Takeaways for Traders
Victoria’s Secret delivered a stronger-than-expected quarter, which set the stock soaring. But before chasing today’s double-digit move, investors should keep VSCO’s choppy earnings history in mind: wild swings are common, but downside follow-through isn’t unusual. With options pricing in big volatility, this time could always be different—but history leans more towards post-earnings fizzle than follow-through rally. Stay alert for whipsaws, and if you’re betting on continued gains, know the odds haven’t favored the bulls for long.
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