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IBIT Call Spread Nets 7.9% Gain on $1.8M Trade: Bullish Intent or Risky Bet?
When a trader puts over $1.8 million on the line in a single options spread, it's worth taking a closer look. That’s exactly what happened with iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) on May 20, 2025. A massive 10,130-contract call spread trade at the 60-75 strike expiring July 18 caught our attention not only for its size but for the quick gains that followed. What does this tell us about sentiment and what can traders learn from the move?
Trade Details: Over 10,000 Contracts at the 60-75 Call Spread
| Options Trade Expiration | 18-Jul-25 |
|---|---|
| Options Strikes | 60-75 call spread |
| Number of Contracts | 10,130 |
| Days to Expiration | 59 |
| VWAP Trade Price | 3.58 |
| VWAP Bid Price | 3.49 |
| VWAP Ask Price | 3.61 |
| Stock Reference Price at Time of Trade | 59.43 |
As of 1:35 p.m., the spread had climbed to 3.87, netting buyers an average gain of $0.28 per contract, or a 7.9% increase in just a few hours, helped by a $0.90 rise in the underlying IBIT price.
Potential Reward: Buyers Could Turn $1.8M Into $5.8M
The scale of this position points to significant conviction. With over $1.8 million paid upfront, the payoff structure allows the trader to make approximately $5.8 million—if IBIT closes above $75 on July 18, 2025. While that's an ambitious target (nearly $15 above the trade reference price), the setup leverages risk with high upside, possibly anticipating continued Bitcoin-related momentum.
For those who want to analyze the specifics, check out the multi leg trade analyzer.
Technical Indicators Show a Strong Uptrend: IBIT Outperforming SPY
Technical data paints a robust picture. IBIT recently traded at $60.33—up 0.57% on the day and 1.4% above the open. Here’s how IBIT stacks up on moving averages:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price vs. 20D Avg | +8.0% |
| Price vs. 50D Avg | +18.6% |
| Price vs. 250D Avg | +33.9% |
| 20D vs. 50D Avg | +9.8% |
| 20D vs. 250D Avg | +24.0% |
| 50D vs. 250D Avg | +12.9% |
The moving average trend is strongly positive. In fact, IBIT is up 113.7% from its 52-week low and is only 2.3% below its 52-week high—a bullish setup that has also translated into real outperformance versus the broader market (SPY):
| Duration | IBIT Return | Low | High | SPY Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +0.5% | 59.20 | 60.42 | -0.3% |
| 2 Week | +12.5% | 53.02 | 60.42 | +5.3% |
| 1 Month | +25.0% | 49.10 | 60.42 | +12.7% |
| 3 Month | +10.4% | 42.98 | 60.42 | -3.0% |
| 6 Month | +14.4% | 42.98 | 61.75 | +1.1% |
| 1 Year | +57.6% | 28.23 | 61.75 | +13.4% |
| YTD | +13.7% | 42.98 | 61.08 | +1.5% |
Across nearly every period, IBIT has outpaced SPY—reinforcing a narrative of strength for the ETF.
Option Skew and Sentiment: 30-Day Skew at 89% Signals Bullish Expectations
The proprietary 30-day implied volatility skew indicator currently sits at 89% (out of 100), which puts it near the most bullish readings in the last year. This forward-looking options metric suggests traders see the potential for even further gains—and the call spread buyer is likely hoping to capture some of this upside if sentiment translates into price action.
Takeaway: Tracking Strategic Call Spread Activity in IBIT
With technical trends, market outperformance, and bullish skew indicators all aligning, the recent call spread trade in IBIT may not just be a one-off wager—it could reflect growing institutional optimism for the ETF’s medium-term future. While it remains to be seen whether IBIT will reach the ambitious $75 target by mid-July, the risk-reward dynamic in this trade is compelling, especially given the rapid 7.9% gain already logged by buyers.
If you’re interested in seeing more of these strategic multi-leg trades, check out the Market Chameleon Multi-Leg Trade Screener to explore new opportunities or keep an eye on unusual activity.
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NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
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