Click to view the earnings moves in LOW
Are Today’s Earnings Moves in Lowe’s Stock Just More of the Same?
Every earnings day for Lowe’s Companies (NYSE: LOW) brings its own surprises—but does the stock actually move much, on average, when results drop? With LOW’s latest report out this morning, it’s the perfect time to compare current price action against what’s ‘normal’ around its earnings events.
This quarter, Lowe’s reported Q1 earnings with comparable sales down 1.7% and diluted EPS of $2.92, slightly under last year’s $3.06. The company reaffirmed its 2025 outlook, but with weather and housing market challenges in the mix, today’s market response was underwhelming: shares traded recently at $228.52, off 1.4% so far.
Did Lowe’s Move as Much as Options Expected?
Heading into today’s release, options traders were pricing in a ±3.9% swing in LOW shares—far larger than the actual early-day move of -1.4%. With 12,064 option contracts trading so far today, it’s clear there was plenty of anticipation, but not quite the fireworks implied volatility suggested.
What History Says: Typical Stock Moves Around Lowe’s Earnings
Let’s take a look at the numbers. Historically, how does LOW perform on earnings day, and in the days that follow? We summarized the last 12 quarters of data below, with the most relevant statistics highlighted for easy comparison. For the full data set, check the LOW earnings historical performance page.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.4% | +0.3% | +1.7% | -2.1% | -0.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 58.3% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
The big takeaway? Lowe’s stock is pretty evenly split between up and down moves on earnings, averaging a mild -0.4% move. While pre-market and open gaps are slightly positive, there’s a bias toward drifting lower throughout the session (average open-to-close return: -0.7%). Price swings to intraday highs and lows can reach over 1.7% up or 2.1% down—hinting at volatility but rarely big surprises.
How Does Lowe’s Trade After Earnings?
Post-earnings drift can be important for anyone looking to capitalize on a potential after-the-news reversal. Here’s what the last 12 earnings cycles suggest:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.1% | -0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | -0.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 63.6% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 36.4% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% |
On average, LOW stock hardly moves after earnings—post-report returns hover near zero—but a slight edge appears for gains 3 days out and after a full week. Still, the win/loss ratio shows LOW is more likely than not to trade higher one day or two weeks after results.
Today’s Most Active Option: What’s the Bet?
While shares themselves have been quiet, the options market picked a favorite contract. Today’s top single-leg option was a call:
| Option Contract | 23-May-25 230 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 872 |
| VWAP price | 2.17 |
| Open interest | 723 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 5.03 |
This contract attracted nearly 900 contracts—suggesting at least some traders are eyeing a bounce in LOW stock near $230, but the sharp drop in price from yesterday’s close hints that premiums evaporated as implied volatility collapsed post-event.
Final Thoughts: Earnings Days in Perspective
Lowe’s may not deliver the blockbuster volatility some traders hope for, but understanding its historical pattern—muted, mixed moves on average—can set expectations. Whether you’re trading the news or just holding through the report, this knowledge can help avoid surprises.
Curious for more in-depth stats and seasonality analysis? Explore the full earnings-day data at Market Chameleon’s Lowe’s historical earnings movement page.
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