CMG Call Spread Trade: 10,010 Contracts Move as Stock Rises 0.52 – What Does It Signal?
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High-Volume CMG Call Spread Generates 17.9% Gain in Hours
On May 30, 2025, a notably large call spread trade in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) options crossed the tape, attracting attention with both its size and timing. Buyers picked up 10,010 contracts of a $50-$55 call spread expiring June 20, 2025, at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of 1.06. By 2:10 p.m., the spread was trading at 1.25—an average gain of 0.19 per spread, or a swift 17.9% increase. The driver? A 0.52-point uptick in CMG shares, from $49.40 at the time of the trade to $49.92 by the afternoon.
Table: Key Call Spread Trade Details
| Trade Expiration | June 20, 2025 |
|---|---|
| Strikes | 50/55 Call Spread |
| Contracts | 10,010 |
| Days to Expiration | 21 |
| VWAP Trade Price | 1.06 |
| VWAP Bid/Ask | 1.02 / 1.07 |
| Stock Price at Trade | 49.40 |
| Current Stock Price | 49.92 |
| Spread Gain | 0.19 (+17.9%) |
For a deep dive into the details, check the CMG Multi-Leg Trade Analyzer.
Trade Structure Points to Potential $2 Million Upside
To secure this trade, buyers put up more than $531,000. The reward? If CMG closes above $55 on expiration, the payout could be just over $2.0 million—nearly four times the upfront investment. With the stock now approaching $50, bulls are betting on at least a modest run in the next three weeks to realize a significant profit.
- Trade Cost: ~$531,000
- Max Potential Profit: ~$2.0 million if CMG is above $55 at expiration
- Breakeven at Expiration: $51.06
CMG Technicals Show a Mixed, Cautiously Optimistic Picture
The technical story on CMG offers nuance. After falling behind the S&P 500 (SPY) across all recent timeframes, the stock is attempting to reverse course with a modest +0.4% gain today, breaking above its expected resistance level of 50.57 but still well below longer-term moving averages. Here’s how CMG has performed:
Table: CMG vs. SPY Returns Across Timeframes
| Duration | CMG Return | Low | High | SPY Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +0.4% | 49.31 | 49.93 | -0.5% |
| 2 Week | -4.1% | 49.31 | 52.56 | -0.5% |
| 1 Month | -1.4% | 49.13 | 52.69 | +6.0% |
| 3 Month | -7.5% | 44.46 | 55.70 | -0.9% |
| 6 Month | -18.9% | 44.46 | 66.74 | -1.9% |
| 1 Year | -18.8% | 44.46 | 69.26 | +13.0% |
| YTD | -17.2% | 44.46 | 61.16 | +0.5% |
| 3 Year | +78.0% | 23.93 | 69.26 | +46.4% |
| 5 Year | +148.6% | 19.29 | 69.26 | +103.5% |
While recent returns are sluggish, the longer view remains robust. Today’s bounce puts the stock up 12.3% off its 52-week low (45.98) but still 27.9% below its 52-week high (68.55).
Moving averages paint a picture of near-term struggle but possible stabilization: CMG sits 2.1% below its 20-day moving average and just 0.2% under its 50-day, suggesting resistance is beginning to fade. However, it is 11.2% below its 250-day average—a reminder that momentum has yet to shift decisively back in its favor.
Option Skew Indicates Slightly Bullish Sentiment
Options markets are tilting bullish, at least slightly. The proprietary 30-day implied volatility skew stands at the 61st percentile, suggesting sentiment is stronger than usual over the past year. Historically, a higher skew rank can indicate traders are anticipating upward moves or hedging downside less aggressively.
Key Takeaways: Tactical Bullish Bet or Early Shift?
The large CMG call spread trade reflects tactical optimism that the recent slide in shares could be bottoming out. Despite lackluster short-term returns versus the S&P 500, both the technicals and option sentiment now hint at stabilizing or rebounding price action. If the bullish bet plays out, there’s real money at stake: a potential $2 million win for the buyers if CMG pushes past $55 in three weeks.
Curious about more multi-leg option trades or other call spreads? Head to the Market Chameleon Multi-Leg Trade Screener to see what other strategies are emerging in the options market.
Will CMG continue to rally enough for this trade to pay off, or is the recent bounce just a blip? While no one has a crystal ball, this sizable options play is worth tracking for anyone interested in market sentiment and tactical trading strategies.
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