Click to view the earnings moves in RNW
Did RNW’s Earnings Just Defy Options Market Expectations?
Shares of ReNew Energy Global (NASDAQ:RNW) made only a modest move of +1.5% today, right after the company reported a blowout 4X growth in Q4 net profit. But that move pales in comparison to what the options market was bracing for—a swing of nearly ±9.9%. So what gives? Are RNW earnings days typically this quiet, or are fireworks the exception?
A Look Back: How RNW Usually Moves on Earnings
For anyone betting on RNW's volatility, today's muted response isn’t out of character. Over the past 12 quarters, RNW has averaged just a -0.5% move on earnings days. Up and down moves are split right down the middle, but here’s where it gets interesting: after an initial opening pop averaging +0.7%, the stock typically fades throughout the session, closing with an average return of -1.1%. What’s more, RNW tends to hit its lows much harder, averaging a dip of -6.4% to the day’s low compared to a +3.5% move to the high. Downside drifts from open to close are far more common than rallies.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.5% | +0.7% | +3.5% | -6.4% | -1.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 66.7% | 16.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 33.3% | 75.0% |
If you’re looking for more detail on how RNW stock typically reacts to earnings, check out the historical earnings price movement stats page.
How Big Are RNW’s Typical Earnings Day Moves?
The numbers confirm RNW rarely matches the magnitude options traders price in. While options expected today’s move to be nearly 10%, the average absolute earnings move has been just 4.1% over the past three years, with a max one-day jump of 8.6% and moves as small as 0.2%.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% |
| Max Absolute Return | 8.6% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 8.0% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
Post-Earnings Drift: Do the Trends Continue?
So what typically happens after RNW's earnings day? The trend leans bearish—on average, the stock has lost -0.9% one day after results, with downside moves nearly three times as likely as gains. However, as the days roll on, the odds of a bounce slowly improve, though the average return remains negative over both one and two weeks.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.9% | 0.0% | +0.1% | -1.0% | -1.5% |
| % of Moves Up | 27.3% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 72.7% | 45.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% |
Spotlight: Today’s Options Action
The options market stayed busy with a total volume of 896 contracts traded. The most active single-leg contract? The 20-Jun-25 7 Call, seeing the most action on the day RNW announced its results.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 20-Jun-25 7 C |
| Volume | 355 |
| VWAP price | 0.16 |
| Open interest | 3,512 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.25 |
What’s the Bigger Picture?
Today’s move, while supported by headline earnings strength—Q4 profit up fourfold and another year of positive results—fits a clear pattern: the market’s initial excitement on RNW tends to get tempered fast, with negative drifts from open to close and continued losses after the dust settles. Still, there’s a looming wildcard: ongoing takeover talks with the Masdar-led consortium, eyeing a possible buyout at $7.07 per share. Until a deal is done, or another catalyst emerges, historical patterns suggest that wild options pricing and actual RNW stock movement often diverge.
Curious how RNW has traded around past earnings events? Dig into the full historical earnings-day stats here.
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