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Large TLT 87-89 Call Spread Trade Yields 61.8% Return in Just Hours
On June 17, 2025, TLT options lit up with a massive call spread transaction: 9,400 contracts of the June 30, 2025 87-89 call spread traded at an average price of $0.34. As of 3:50 PM, the value of the spread climbed to $0.55—a gain of $0.21 per contract or a hefty 61.8% return in a single day. This impressive move came as TLT shares rose from $85.88 to $86.54, an uptick of $0.66 that gave buyers of this spread an early windfall.
Call Spread Details: $160K to Potentially Make $780K
| Option Trade | Details |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 30-Jun-25 |
| Strikes | 87-89 Call Spread |
| Contracts | 9,400 |
| VWAP Price (Trade/Bid/Ask) | 0.34 / 0.34 / 0.36 |
| Stock Reference Price (Trade) | 85.88 |
| Days to Expiration | 13 |
| Spread Value (as of 3:50 PM) | 0.55 |
At $0.34 per contract, buyers paid just over $160,000 for the call spread position (9,400 contracts x 100 shares x $0.34), setting up for a potential maximum profit of approximately $780,000—if TLT finishes above $89 at expiration on June 30, 2025. Full multi-leg trade analyzer here.
Bullish Skew Indicator and Price Momentum Signal Optimism
The strategic aim behind this trade is clear: these traders are looking for a near-term rally in TLT, with just 13 days to expiry. Option market sentiment supports that view. Market Chameleon's proprietary option skew indicator clocks in at 78%—bullish territory for the last 52 weeks. A higher skew rank suggests market makers are assigning greater probability to an upside move in TLT in the coming weeks.
Technical Picture: TLT Claws Back After Recent Lows
| Technical | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | 86.54 |
| Change Today | +1.08 (+1.26%) |
| Open Jump | +0.6% |
| Change from Open | +0.6% |
| 52-Week Low (May 21, 2025) | 83.97 |
| 52-Week High (Sep 16, 2024) | 101.33 |
| % Off 52-Week High | -14.9% |
| % From 20-Day MA | +1.1% |
| % From 50-Day MA | -0.4% |
| % From 250-Day MA | -5.4% |
TLT is up 1.3% today, notching gains off its 52-week lows (+3.9%), but remains well below the highs seen last September. The price sits just above the 20-day moving average but slightly under the 50-day, and is still 5.4% under its 250-day average. This pattern suggests short-term bullish momentum—especially after outpacing SPY in the past two weeks (+1.6% for TLT vs. +0.9% for SPY)—but longer-term headwinds persist. Over one year and longer durations, TLT continues to underperform SPY, reinforcing the short time horizon behind the call spread trade.
Performance Snapshot: TLT vs. SPY Across Time Frames
| Duration | TLT Return | SPY Return | TLT Low | TLT High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +1.3% | -0.8% | 85.75 | 86.66 |
| 2 Weeks | +1.6% | +0.9% | 84.89 | 87.20 |
| 1 Month | +0.7% | +0.7% | 83.30 | 87.20 |
| 3 Months | -3.0% | +6.6% | 83.30 | 94.09 |
| 6 Months | -2.2% | -0.8% | 83.30 | 94.09 |
| 1 Year | -4.6% | +11.5% | 83.30 | 101.64 |
| YTD | +0.9% | +2.3% | 83.30 | 94.09 |
| 3 Years | -13.3% | +69.4% | 82.42 | 120.69 |
| 5 Years | -36.6% | +101.2% | 82.42 | 172.25 |
What to Watch Next: Near-Term Focus for Call Spread Traders
With less than two weeks to expiration, this high-volume call spread reflects an outsized short-term bet: TLT closing above $89 for a shot at maximum gains. The strong skew indicator and recent technical recovery lend support to the bullish stance. While the trade’s risk is capped (limited to the premium paid), TLT will need continued momentum to reach that key strike.
Curious to track more strategies like this? Check out the multi-leg trade screener for a real-time look at new call spreads and complex options plays.
Takeaway: Options Market Sentiment Turning Positive on TLT
This call spread isn’t just a one-off; it fits with broader signals in the options market—rising implied volatility skew and short-term price outperformance. For traders and investors, it’s a data-driven signal that at least some participants see room for more upside in TLT before June ends. While maximum profit remains a stretch, the swift gain so far is a reminder of how quickly option sentiment—and TLT’s price—can shift.
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NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
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