Click to view the earnings moves in KFY
Korn Ferry Smashes Expectations—But Will the Gains Hold?
Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY) delivered a robust fourth quarter and full year FY'25 earnings report today, sending shares surging 9% to $72.86—well above the ±5.6% move options traders were anticipating. But as investors celebrate, a look at Korn Ferry’s history around earnings tells a story of short-term optimism often followed by a quick reversal.
Earnings Headlines: A Breakdown of the Q4 Report
Korn Ferry reported Q4 fee revenue of $712.0 million, up 3% year-over-year (4% at constant currency), and full-year fee revenue of $2.73 billion, down 1% from FY'24. Fourth quarter net income came in at $64.2 million, representing a 9% margin—slightly below last year, while adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 17%. The company’s Executive Search business was a standout, notching a 14% revenue jump.
The options market reflected heightened anticipation, with volume hitting 805 contracts today—most notably concentrated in the 20-Jun-25 75 C calls. (See details below.)
Stock Move vs. Options Expectations: Outlier or Opportunity?
The stock’s 9% jump today dwarfed the average ±5.6% move options traders had been pricing in, and far outpaced the previous quarter’s 7.6% post-earnings move. But is this the start of a trend—or a setup for a snap-back?
History Isn’t Always on the Bulls’ Side
Over the last 12 quarters, Korn Ferry stock has averaged a -0.4% return on the day of earnings, with downside moves outnumbering upside 58% to 42%. Even when the stock opens strong (average open gap +1.9%), intraday pressure tends to push it lower, with open-to-close returns averaging -2.3% and downside moves occurring more than 80% of the time.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.4% | +1.9% | +2.3% | -4.0% | -2.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 41.7% | 50.0% | 16.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 58.3% | 50.0% | 83.3% |
What’s more, after the dust settles, history says the momentum often fades quickly. The average 1-day post-earnings return is -1.1%, with just 18% of days finishing higher and more than 80% trending down.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -1.1% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -1.3% | -0.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 18.2% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 36.4% |
| % of Moves Down | 81.8% | 45.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% | 63.6% |
For the absolute magnitude of earnings moves (regardless of direction):
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| Max Absolute Return | 11.6% | 14.9% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Want to dig deeper into KFY's earnings-related moves? Visit the KFY Historical Earnings Stock Performance Page.
Options Spotlight: Where Was the Action?
Today’s most active single-leg contract was the 20-Jun-25 75 Call. Here’s a snapshot of the action:
| Option Contract | 20-Jun-25 75 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 156 |
| VWAP Price | 1.71 |
| Open Interest | 135 |
| Yesterday's Closing Price | 0.35 |
The Bottom Line: Watch the Next Moves Carefully
While today’s outsized move has grabbed headlines, Korn Ferry’s earnings playbook has often favored the bears in the days after. This doesn’t guarantee the past will repeat—but for traders riding the post-earnings momentum, it’s a reminder that ‘what goes up, often comes down’ in KFY’s history. Keep an eye on post-earnings trends and options flows for the next twist in the story.
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