Click to view the earnings moves in CPB
Can Campbell’s Defy Its Own Earnings-Day Gravity?
Campbell’s Company (NASDAQ: CPB) just unveiled its fiscal Q3 results—and with net sales up 4% to $2.5 billion and adjusted EPS sliding just 3%, investors saw a performance slightly ahead of expectations but not without challenges. The stock price, last seen at $33.89, dipped -0.5% following the announcement. With today’s earnings event behind us, what does history suggest for CPB’s next move?
Earnings Recap: Solid Results, Muted Stock Reaction
Net sales were helped by the Sovos Brands acquisition, while adjusted EBIT managed a 2% gain, offset by a notable one-time impairment charge. Campbell’s reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, though admits snack sales are rebounding slower than hoped. The company continues to return cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. In the options market, traders had braced for a ±5.7% swing around earnings, but so far the move has come in muted. What should you expect next? For more granular stats, check out the full historical earnings price movement page.
CPB’s Historical Earnings-Day Stock Performance
If you’re wondering whether today’s lackluster move is par for the course, the answer is yes. CPB has developed a track record of subdued reactions around earnings, and historical patterns point to a modest downside bias both during and after earnings days.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.6% | -0.4% | +1.9% | -2.3% | -0.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 33.3% | 50.0% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 66.7% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
On average, CPB drops -0.6% on earnings day and has closed lower twice as often as it’s closed higher (66.7% of moves down). Most earnings-day volatility comes from the early session, as the average swing from open to low is -2.3%, compared to +1.9% from open to high. Open-to-close performance is barely negative at -0.2%, highlighting that intraday bounces are typically modest.
How Big Do Earnings Moves Get?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Max Absolute Return | 8.9% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
The options market was expecting a 5.7% move today, but on average, actual swings come in lighter. Even the most volatile CPB earnings move in the past 12 quarters only stretched to 8.9% in either direction. Most moves stay in the 2-3% range—something to consider for option sellers or traders eyeing implied volatility.
Post-Earnings: More of the Same?
Does CPB typically bounce back after earnings? The numbers suggest not. Average returns over the next two weeks hover around zero, with neither buyers nor sellers getting much of a statistical edge. Notably, two days after earnings has historically seen more down moves (72.7%) than up, with average returns barely above break-even at +0.1%.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.2% | +0.1% | +0.9% | +0.4% | -0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 45.5% | 27.3% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 54.5% | 72.7% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
The bottom line? Campbell’s rarely provides dramatic moves after reporting earnings, and the data suggests traders often overprice volatility in the run-up. If you’re betting on a post-earnings rally, just know the odds aren’t historically stacked in your favor.
Options Spotlight: The Hot Trade of the Day
On a quieter day for CPB options, one contract stood out: the 06-Jun-25 36 Call. Here’s a breakdown of the activity in the day’s most actively traded single leg:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 06-Jun-25 36 C |
| Volume | 376 |
| VWAP price | 0.13 |
| Open interest | 527 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.30 |
With a $36 strike (well above current levels) and prices moving down from yesterday’s close, it seems some traders were angling for a short-term pop that’s yet to materialize. Whether they were buying lotto tickets or selling into fading implied volatility is something worth digging into—especially given CPB’s track record for muted post-earnings moves.
Key Takeaway: CPB Loves Consistency—Not Surprises
Despite an upbeat tone from management and some solid progress, Campbell’s continues to be a name defined by stable, unexciting price action—especially around earnings. If you’re a volatility hunter, history suggests you may want to manage your expectations (or your premiums). Curious to dig even deeper? Explore CPB’s full earnings history here and watch the options board for hints of shifting sentiment in the weeks to come.
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