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Large Call Spread in XOM Signals Bold Bullish Bet: $290,000 Wager Could Net $310,000
A notable call spread trade in Exxon Mobil (XOM) options crossed the tape on June 20, 2025, and it wasn’t just noise—this was a big-ticket play worth paying attention to. Someone put down over $290,000 on a July expiration call spread, chasing a possible profit of around $310,000. Is this conviction or calculated risk? Here’s what the numbers tell us.
Trade Snapshot: Size, Structure, and Immediate Results
| Details | Values |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 18-Jul-25 |
| Strike Prices | 110-120 Call Spread |
| Number of Contracts | 1,200 |
| Days to Expiry | 28 |
| VWAP Trade Price | 4.83 |
| Current Spread Price (02:40) | 4.88 |
| Average Gain Since Trade | +0.05 (+1.1%) |
| Stock Reference Price at Trade | 114.27 |
At the time of execution, the buyer locked in 1,200 contracts at a 4.83 average price per spread. By the afternoon, with XOM ticking up just $0.01 to $114.28, the trade was already showing a 1.1% paper gain—demonstrating how sensitive this setup is to stock moves. Check the full multi-leg trade analyzer for XOM.
Maximum Payouts and Risk: Buyer Needs $120+
The bet here is clear: XOM above $120 by July 18. If that plays out, the maximum profit is nearly $310,000 against the $290,000 staked—a solid risk-reward profile if the bullish thesis holds up. But even small market moves have an impact, as the narrow gain so far illustrates.
Technical Indicators Show Bullish Momentum: XOM Up 11.7% in Two Weeks
| Duration | XOM Return | Low | High | SPY Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +1.0% | 113.18 | 114.40 | -0.2% |
| 2 Week | +11.7% | 101.73 | 115.24 | -0.2% |
| 1 Month | +5.6% | 101.19 | 115.24 | +0.1% |
| 3 Month | +1.4% | 97.80 | 119.91 | +6.3% |
| 6 Month | +9.3% | 97.80 | 119.91 | +2.1% |
| 1 Year | +8.1% | 97.80 | 126.34 | +9.8% |
| YTD | +8.1% | 97.80 | 119.91 | +1.8% |
| 3 Year | +45.8% | 80.69 | 126.34 | +67.7% |
| 5 Year | +182.5% | 31.11 | 126.34 | +101.8% |
XOM has shown robust strength in the past two weeks, outperforming the SPY by nearly 12%. Technicals are stacked in the bulls’ favor: a Fast Bullish Crossover in moving averages and prices now 7.9% above the 20-day and 7.8% above the 50-day averages. XOM is also testing resistance levels, now trading above expected resistance (114.68), though still 9.6% below its 52-week high. Longer-term, XOM has lagged the S&P 500 over the past year and three years but outpaced the index over five years by a wide margin.
Option Skew Indicator: Slightly Bearish Signals from the Market
Despite strong recent stock momentum and a bullish trade, options data paint a more cautious picture. The 30-day implied volatility skew comes in at a 48% rank (Market Chameleon Proprietary Skew Indicator), signaling a slightly bearish market posture. That means while call spread buyers are targeting a breakout, the broader options market isn’t pricing in maximum upside enthusiasm—traders may be hedging or positioning for limited gains rather than a full-on rally.
Key Takeaways: Tactical Bullishness Meets Measured Market Skepticism
- $290,000 was wagered for a chance to make $310,000 if XOM surges above $120 in under a month.
- Technical indicators are flashing bullish signals after a strong short-term run, but the options market skews a bit cautious.
- Near-term outperformance and a bullish technical setup justify a speculative play—but a muted volatility skew means risk of stagnation or modest upside.
While it’s impossible to know whether this big call spread bet is a hedge, an outright bullish play, or part of a more complex strategy, the interplay between strong stock momentum and option market hesitation is a story worth following. Want to find more large call spreads or see how multi-leg strategies are trading? Browse the Multi-Leg Trade Screener for more insight.
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