Click to view the earnings moves in MKC
Can McCormick Keep Spicing Up Returns After Today's 4.9% Earnings Pop?
McCormick (MKC) turned up the heat today, with shares rising 4.9% following a solid Q2 earnings report and reaffirmation of its 2025 guidance. The flavor giant beat a challenging backdrop by growing both net sales and operating income, while keeping long-term goals on track. But with the stock outpacing options market expectations, the big question for investors: Does history suggest this post-earnings rally can last?
Digging Into MKC's Typical Earnings-Day Moves
MKC's options market was pricing in a ±5.9% move heading into today—a reasonable expectation based on past volatility, but the actual move landed slightly under that bar at 4.9%. To see if this move has staying power, let’s turn to MKC’s historical performance around earnings, with data collected from the past 12 quarterly events:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.5% | +1.3% | +2.8% | -2.4% | +0.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 58.3% | 58.3% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 41.7% | 41.7% | 50.0% |
What stands out? MKC's average earnings-day move is a positive +1.5%, but rallies over 4% are rare—today’s gain is an outlier, matching the upper end of the stock’s typical post-earnings range. On half of past events, the open-to-close performance was positive, suggesting limited day-of follow-through even after strong gaps higher.
What About the Size of the Move?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% |
| Max Absolute Return | 10.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
This tells us the magnitude of MKC’s average earnings-day move (absolute value) is 4.9%—nearly identical to today's pop, meaning today's performance was actually "normal" by recent standards, though with a bullish bias.
Do Earnings Day Gains Stick? The Post-Earnings Drift
If you’re wondering whether MKC typically builds on earnings rallies, here’s how the stock performs after the big event:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.5% | +0.5% | -1.4% |
| % of Moves Up | 81.8% | 45.5% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| % of Moves Down | 18.2% | 54.5% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 63.6% |
MKC shows a remarkable 81.8% win rate the day after earnings, albeit with a modest +0.2% average gain—good news for those chasing momentum, but less convincing in the longer run. In fact, gains tend to flatten out after one week, with a notable dip (-1.4%) two weeks post-earnings.
Curious to see more patterns? Check out the full MKC earnings move statistics here.
Options Action: All Eyes on the 18-Jul-25 85 Calls
Unusual options activity can sometimes hint at expectations for future stock movement. Today, the most actively traded single-leg contract for MKC was:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 18-Jul-25 85 C |
| Volume | 319 |
| VWAP price | 0.15 |
| Open interest | 660 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.08 |
With today's jump, some traders may be betting MKC can break above $85 before mid-July—a price roughly 10% above current levels.
The Bottom Line: Is MKC a Recipe for Short-Term Gains?
Today’s post-earnings rally for MKC stands out, but looking at the past, sharp moves tend to give way to quieter sessions, and the long-term data is mixed. While the company continues to deliver resilient growth and inspire optimism among leadership, historical performance says the odds for further gains beyond the first day are good, but modest—especially after a big earnings day move. As always, keep an eye on options signals, the macro flavor environment, and upcoming guidance for your next ingredient of insight.
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