Click to view the earnings moves in BF.B
Is Another Subdued Earnings Reaction Coming for Brown-Forman? Here’s What the Numbers Reveal
Brown-Forman (BF.B) released its latest earnings today, and while traders had priced in a potential move of ±8%, historical performance around earnings days paints a more nuanced picture. With options volume surging to 14,267 contracts and one put contract seeing especially heavy action, is this business-as-usual—or the calm before the storm?
Today’s Options Action: All Eyes on the 25 Put
Today's most actively traded single-leg option was the 20-Jun-25 25 P put, drawing remarkable volume. Here’s a closer look at the key stats:
| Option Contract | 20-Jun-25 25 P |
|---|---|
| Volume | 8,569 |
| VWAP Price | 0.13 |
| Open Interest | 21 |
| Yesterday's Closing Price | 7.40 |
This put saw over 60% of today’s total options activity—a sharp divergence from previous days, raising questions about trader expectations heading into and after the report.
How Has BF.B Stock Actually Moved on Earnings Days?
If you’re expecting fireworks based on past results, the data might surprise you. Here’s a summary of BF.B’s typical earnings day performance over the past 12 quarters:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.7% | +2.0% | +1.7% | -3.6% | -1.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 75.0% | 37.5% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 25.0% | 62.5% |
- Average move: +0.7% on earnings day, with gains and losses evenly split (50% each).
- Opening gaps: Average +2.0% jump at the open, skewed toward the upside 75% of the time.
- Drift to the close: Despite stronger opens, the stock drifts lower, with a -1.3% average return from open to close and nearly two-thirds (62.5%) of closes ending lower.
- Volatility: Intraday swings are biased to the downside; the move to the daily low averages -3.6%, compared to a +1.7% move to the high.
You can view the full historical earnings movement breakdown here.
How Big Are the Swings? The Absolute Numbers Tell the Story
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% |
| Max Absolute Return | 11.2% | 12.5% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% |
| Min Absolute Return | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
The biggest earnings day move in recent history reached 11.2%, but most moves have hovered closer to 6% in either direction—modest compared to what today's option market implied. Keep in mind that swings from the open to the low can also approach -3.6%, reflecting notable downside risk.
What Happens After Earnings? Post-Report Patterns to Know
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.2% | +0.3% | 0.0% | -1.1% | -2.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 37.5% | 50.0% | 62.5% | 37.5% | 37.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 62.5% | 50.0% | 37.5% | 62.5% | 62.5% |
- After earnings: The average return 1 day after is slightly negative at -0.2%, and over the next two weeks, the trend remains downward (average -2.1%).
- 3 days post-earnings: 62.5% of the time, the stock rises in this short window, though the magnitude is flat (0.0%).
- Overall drift: Downside bias resumes in the days and weeks following the earnings event.
Key Takeaways for Investors
While today’s implied move (+/-8%) suggested expectations for a larger swing, Brown-Forman has a recent history of relatively muted earnings day performance—with modest average returns and more downside risk after the open. The flood of interest in the 25-strike put option might reflect traders betting on another typical earnings letdown, or hedging against downside.
Whether today’s move bucks history remains to be seen. But as always, history is only one piece of the puzzle. For deeper historical context, explore the full historical earnings performance page to compare how this earnings season stacks up to the past.
Contact Information:
If you have feedback or concerns about the content, please feel free to reach out to us via email at support@marketchameleon.com.
About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:
Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.
NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.