JD.com Earnings Day: What Can the Stock’s History Tell Us After Today's -2.9% Drop?
Click to view the earnings moves in JD
JD.com just dropped -2.9% following its latest earnings release—right in line with its recent track record. Are investors set up for more post-earnings pain, or could there be a rebound on the horizon?
Unpacking Today's Move and Earnings Headlines
JD.com (JD) announced strong top-line growth in its second quarter results, with revenues rising 22.4% year-over-year to RMB356.7 billion (US$149.8 billion). Yet, despite management's confidence and healthy retail margins, investors took a dim view: the stock fell -2.9%, underperforming the options market’s expected move of ±5.8%. Notably, this was a reversal from last quarter’s earnings pop of +3.3%.
Today’s options volume was robust, hitting 108,528 contracts—signaling elevated market attention. For traders seeking detailed post-earnings moves, you can view more stats on JD.com’s earnings history page.
Does JD.com's Earnings Day History Favor Bulls or Bears?
If you’re expecting a big turnaround in the coming days, the historical stats suggest caution. Over the past 12 earnings cycles, JD stock averaged a modest +1.2% return on the day of results. However, there’s a twist: while 58.3% of earnings days are positive, a strong initial opening gap (+2.2%) has often been met with weakness into the close (-1.1% open-to-close average).
Drilling into the moves:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.2% | +2.2% | +2.4% | -3.7% | -1.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 58.3% | 58.3% | 33.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 41.7% | 41.7% | 66.7% |
Digging deeper into the magnitude of the moves, earnings day volatility has been real—even if the final result is muted:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Max Absolute Return | 16.2% | 16.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Bottom line: even a routine earnings print often produces outsized swings, with plenty of downside probes during the day.
What Happens Next? The After-Earnings Drift
Historically, the picture turns more bearish after earnings. Over the 12 past earnings cycles, JD stock has posted negative average returns one, two, and even three days after results—with the largest weakness one week out:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -1.2% | -1.8% | -1.8% | -2.9% | -2.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 27.3% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 18.2% | 27.3% |
| % of Moves Down | 72.7% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 81.8% | 72.7% |
It’s clear that, historically, JD.com tends to drift lower in the days after reporting—even if the initial earnings move isn’t dramatic.
Spotlight: Today’s Most Actively Traded JD Option
For those watching the options market, the single most traded JD contract today was a far out-of-the-money call expiring September 2025:
| Option Contract | 19-Sep-25 40 C |
| Volume | 4,463 |
| VWAP price | 0.13 |
| Open interest | 104,958 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.29 |
High volume, a huge open interest, and a dramatic price cut (down from 0.29 to 0.13) highlight aggressive positioning—possibly as a hedge, or a speculative upside bet by traders not deterred by the bearish near-term trend.
Takeaway: What to Watch From Here
History doesn’t guarantee the future, but the pattern is tough to ignore. JD.com earnings have brought volatility and, more often than not, negative follow-through in the days and weeks that follow—even in strong growth years. If you’re tracking the action, monitor options flow and how the stock holds up in the days after. And don’t miss the full breakdown on JD’s earnings performance stats here.
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