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KWEB Sees $349K Call Spread Play Targeting 390% Upside—What’s Behind the Bullish Bet?
When a trader spends over $349,000 on a single KWEB call spread aiming for a nearly $1.7 million payout, it’s a move that turns heads. Let’s break down the specifics, what this reveals about sentiment in Kraneshares Trust Kraneshares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB), and how market signals are aligning.
Major KWEB Call Spread: 10,416 Contracts Hint at Bullish Conviction
On August 18, 2025, a sizeable call spread traded in KWEB, with 10,416 contracts exchanged on the October 17, 2025 expiration for a vertical spread between the 40 and 44 call strikes. The average price paid was $0.67, just above the bid and well below the ask—a level that was soon vindicated when the spread ticked up to $0.70. That translates to a 3.7% gain in under an hour, thanks to a modest move in the stock price from $37.54 to $37.60.
| Trade Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Trade Type | 40-44 Call Spread |
| Expiration Date | 17-Oct-25 |
| Contracts Traded | 10,416 |
| VWAP Price | 0.67 |
| Spread Price at 11:25 | 0.70 |
| Reference Stock Price | 37.54 |
| Current Stock Price | 37.60 |
| Notional Cost | $349,872 |
| Potential Max Profit | ~$1,669,056 |
| Days to Expiration | 60 |
For those curious, you can dive deeper with the Multi Leg Trade Analyzer.
Potential Returns: 390% Reward for Bullish Breakout
This structure—buying the 40 calls and selling the 44 calls—means the trade needs KWEB to close above $44 at expiration to hit max profit. At the cost of about $0.67 per spread, the maximum profit is $3.33 (the $4 strike width minus the premium paid). With 10,416 spreads, this adds up to a possible $1.67 million windfall—roughly 390% of the initial investment. In other words: the buyer is looking for a continued strong move up.
Technicals Show Persistent Uptrend—Momentum Is Clearly Bullish
KWEB isn’t just getting attention in the options market. Its price momentum stands out, especially versus broad-market benchmarks:
- Stock price: $37.60 (up 1.16% on the day)
- Up 52.4% from its 52-week low and just 4.0% off its 52-week high
- Outperformed SPY ETF: +46.1% vs. SPY’s +17.6% over 1 year
- Also outperformed SPY over the last 3 months (+9.7% vs. +9.2%) and 2 weeks (+9.0% vs. +3.4%)
- 20-, 50-, and 250-day moving averages are all below the current price, and moving average trends point to a clear uptrend
| Duration | KWEB Return | SPY Return | KWEB Low | KWEB High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +1.2% | -0.1% | 37.49 | 37.90 |
| 2 Weeks | +9.0% | +3.4% | 35.05 | 37.90 |
| 1 Month | +5.5% | +3.4% | 34.20 | 37.90 |
| 3 Months | +9.7% | +9.2% | 32.39 | 37.90 |
| 6 Months | +5.5% | +6.0% | 27.83 | 38.39 |
| 1 Year | +46.1% | +17.6% | 24.68 | 39.17 |
| YTD | +28.6% | +10.3% | 27.27 | 38.39 |
| 3 Years | +35.5% | +54.7% | 17.22 | 39.17 |
| 5 Years | -36.3% | +100.4% | 17.22 | 104.94 |
Technically, KWEB is in an established uptrend, with short-term averages well above their longer-term counterparts. The fact that it’s so close to its yearly highs, while comfortably outperforming the broader market, makes the call spread’s bullish thesis seem reasonable based on recent history.
Option Skew Indicators Support Slightly Bullish Market Outlook
Digging into options, the 30-day implied volatility skew is ranked at 52%, meaning it sits just above the midpoint of its historical range. Market Chameleon’s proprietary skew indicator interprets this as a slight bullish tilt—not extreme, but pointing toward more appetite for upside calls than downside puts in the near term. In context with KWEB’s technical outperformance, the option market seems to agree with the trend.
Takeaway: Can KWEB Hit $44 for the Max Payout?
This call spread buyer is aiming for a significant rally, requiring KWEB to climb another $6.40 (or about 17%) in the next 60 days. Historically, the stock’s surges have been notable, and both technicals and skew are aligned in the bullish camp. While no one knows the future, it’s a data-backed setup worth watching—especially for traders who use multi-leg option strategies for asymmetric payoffs.
If you want to screen more call spreads or analyze similar multi-leg trades, visit the MarketChameleon Multi-Leg Trade Screener for further insights.
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