Click to view the earnings moves in AEG
AEG’s Earnings Day: Can History Help Decode the Stock’s Next Move?
Aegon Ltd. (AEG) reported its latest earnings today, with options traders bracing for volatility—pricing in a move of ±8.5%. But does the history of AEG’s stock moves on earnings days offer clues for what’s next? Let’s take a look at how the stock has actually performed around recent earnings and why today’s options activity is worth a closer look.
What’s Typical for AEG on Earnings?
Over the last 12 earnings reports, AEG’s stock has had a bit of a wild ride on results day. On average, shares have moved -3.0% the day of earnings—so a downside bias, but not an outsized plunge. What’s striking: moves are nearly split between up and down, but when AEG dips, it tends to stay down into the close, with a historical open-to-close drift averaging -0.5% and two-thirds of the time moving lower throughout the session.
For context, options ahead of today’s results implied a much bigger swing (±8.5%) than the historical average move. Last quarter, AEG tumbled -10.1% on results—highlighting just how unpredictable single earnings events can be.
Historical Stock Performance on Earnings Day
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -3.0% | -2.5% | +0.8% | -1.3% | -0.5% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 50.0% | 66.7% |
AEG’s opening gaps also skew negative on average, with just a third of moves higher at the open, and most sessions trending down after the bell.
For the number crunchers, here’s a quick look at the magnitude of past moves—note, every figure is shown as absolute (i.e., non-directional) change:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 4.4% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 10.1% | 8.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
In plain English: big moves are not rare for AEG earnings days, but they’re usually a bit smaller than the current options market expectations.
For a deep dive into historical AEG earnings moves, visit the full earnings stats page here.
Post-Earnings Trends: Room for Recovery?
While AEG can stumble on earnings, the days that follow have tended to tilt positive. Over the past three years, the stock averaged gains of +0.9% three days post-earnings, with upward moves occurring 83% of the time.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.7% | +0.5% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 66.7% | 83.3% | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 33.3% | 16.7% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
If history is a guide, there may be opportunities for bounce-back trades after the initial post-earnings volatility dies down.
Spotlight: Today’s Most Actively Traded Option
Options traders flocked to the 16-Jan-26 7.5 Call contract today, making it the single most active trade in AEG’s option chain. Here’s a quick snapshot:
| Option Contract | 16-Jan-26 7.5 C |
| Volume | 514 |
| VWAP price | 0.80 |
| Open interest | 1,267 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.40 |
This heavy trading suggests at least some participants are betting on longer-term upside—or hedging ahead of an anticipated move.
Takeaway
AEG’s earnings days tend to deliver a bumpy ride, but over the longer-term, the stock often finds its footing and grinds higher. While the options market is pricing in an even bigger swing than normal this quarter, the odds from past moves show plenty of room for surprises both up and down. Traders should keep an eye on how reality stacks up to the expectations—and maybe watch that January 2026 call for clues about bigger, longer-term bets being placed right now.
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