FWRD: $464K Bet on 3,500-Lot Call Spread Signals Bullish Long-Term View as Options Skew Hits 81% Rank
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Large 3,500-Contract Call Spread Trade Stands Out With 1.9% Gain in First Hour
On August 21, 2025, an eye-catching options trade took place in Forward Air (NASDAQ: FWRD). A 3,500-lot call spread—betting on a rise from $25 to $30—was transacted at a VWAP price of $2.65, just before noon. By 12:30 p.m., the value had already climbed to $2.70, marking a quick gain of 1.9% for the buyers. This uptick aligned with the stock inching higher by $0.11, from a reference price of $27.82 to $27.93.
Call Spread Trade Details: $464K Spent for $411K Potential Profit
Here's how the trade breaks down at a glance:
| Expiration | Strike Prices | Contracts | VWAP Trade Price | Reference Price | DTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17-Dec-27 | 25-30 Call Spread | 3,500 | $2.65 | $27.82 | 848 |
- Buyer Spent: Over $464,000 for the call spread (3,500 x 100 x $2.65).
- Maximum Potential Profit: $411,000, if FWRD finishes above $30 on December 17, 2027.
- Quick Gain: At 12:30, the spread traded at $2.70, a $0.05 gain per share (+1.9%).
Check the Multi-Leg Trade Analyzer for more details.
Buyer’s Intent: Aiming for $30 in 2027 With Manageable Risk
The structure and size of this trade signal strong conviction for FWRD’s recovery or growth by late 2027. The breakeven point (strike + net debit) sits just below the $27.65 level, very close to where FWRD traded at the time. For a potential return of 88% on risk, the buyer only needs shares to finish above $30 at expiration—just 7.4% above the reference price.
Given the 848-day runway, this position can capture substantial longer-term moves, while limiting loss to the premium paid. With over $464K invested, this trade reflects either sophisticated speculation or a targeted hedge—an approach that’s especially notable with FWRD’s recent volatility.
Option Skew Indicator: 81% Bullish Rank Suggests Growing Optimism
According to the Market Chameleon Proprietary Skew Indicator, FWRD’s 30-day implied volatility skew sits at an 81% rank, signaling one of the most bullish stances of the past year. In plain terms, this means that, relative to the past 52 weeks, options markets are expecting greater upside movement and are placing a premium on calls—just as our 3,500-lot trade shows. The bullish skew underscores an underlying sentiment shift, with traders possibly anticipating a rebound or major positive event for the stock.
Browse more large call spreads and multi-leg trades here.
Stock Technicals: Mixed Performance With Recent Outperformance vs SPY
Despite long-term underperformance against the broader S&P 500, FWRD’s recent trends have been more favorable:
- Today: Up 0.50% to $27.93, outperforming SPY’s -0.4%
- Past 3 Months: +54.8% return vs SPY’s +7.5%
- 1-Year: Still down -8.6% vs SPY’s +15.0%
- Price is 185.4% above its 52-week low but -31.7% off its 52-week high
- Currently just above its 50- and 250-day averages, but below its 20-day MA (-6.6%)
- Short-term volatility: Over the past 2 weeks, down -6.6% as SPY edged up +0.4%
Here’s a performance snapshot over key periods:
| Duration | FWRD Return | Range (Low–High) | SPY Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +0.5% | 27.45–28.15 | -0.4% |
| 2 Week | -6.6% | 26.63–31.06 | +0.4% |
| 1 Month | +4.2% | 26.37–32.47 | +1.3% |
| 3 Month | +54.8% | 16.21–32.47 | +7.5% |
| 6 Month | -7.9% | 9.79–32.47 | +4.7% |
| 1 Year | -8.6% | 9.79–40.92 | +15.0% |
| YTD | -13.4% | 9.79–35.47 | +9.0% |
| 3 Year | -72.9% | 9.79–121.38 | +55.4% |
| 5 Year | -45.9% | 9.79–125.71 | +97.3% |
Note: FWRD is currently just above daily support ($26.63) and approaching resistance ($28.95).
Key Takeaways: What’s Next for FWRD?
The 3,500-lot call spread suggests at least one large player sees FWRD with room to run above $30 in the next two years—and is willing to risk $464K for the shot at an 88% return. Combined with the bullish 81% skew rank, there’s growing options market optimism even as the stock has seen ups and downs against the broader market. For traders watching FWRD, this trade is a vote of confidence that’s hard to ignore—and one worth monitoring as expiration approaches.
If you want to keep an eye on similar call spreads or multi-leg trades in FWRD or other stocks, explore the Multi-Leg Trade Screener here.
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