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Walmart Earnings Send Stock Down—Will History Repeat Itself?
Walmart (WMT) announced earnings today and the market wasted no time reacting—the stock dropped -4.6% to $97.75. That’s almost spot-on with the move options traders were betting on, who expected a swing of ±4.7% in either direction. So how does this stack up against Walmart’s historical performance around earnings? And what could the next few days hold for the retail giant’s stock?
Walmart's Earnings: The Headlines Driving Today's Move
This quarter, Walmart delivered revenue growth of 4.8% (5.6% in constant currency), continued eCommerce expansion (+25%), and even raised its sales and EPS outlook for the full year. Still, the market focused on an 8.2% drop in operating income and discrete legal and restructuring costs that weighed on results. Here are some key stats from today’s press release:
- Revenue: $177.4 billion, up 4.8% year-over-year
- eCommerce growth: +25% globally
- Operating income: Down 8.2% (adjusted +0.4% in constant currency)
- GAAP EPS: $0.88; Adjusted EPS: $0.68
With the market responding sharply to the earnings, today’s trading volume also jumped—totaling 189,988 option contracts.
How Has WMT Traded Around Earnings? Let’s Look at the Stats
If you’re curious how Walmart’s stock typically behaves on earnings day (and in the days that follow), the historical averages tell a nuanced story. The tables below break down the typical price action for WMT based on past 12 earnings cycles.
Historical Stock Returns on Earnings Day
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.6% | -1.5% | -0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 66.7% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
On average, WMT stock moves +1.1% on earnings days, and about two-thirds of the time it moves higher. However, moves from the open to the close tend to flatten out (average -0.1%), meaning there’s a 50/50 shot of drifting up or down once the initial reaction has hit.
Magnitude of Earnings Day Moves (Absolute Returns)
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| Max Absolute Return | 8.1% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
The average move on earnings is about 3.7% (up or down), and big surprises can spark swings as high as 8% in either direction.
What Happens After Earnings Day?
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.4% | -0.8% | -0.3% | 0.0% | +0.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 54.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% |
Post-earnings, Walmart stock averages a small drop of -0.4% the next day, and tends to recover after two weeks with a modest average gain of +0.9%.
Want to dig deeper into these stats and see the historical moves yourself? Check out the detailed Walmart historical earnings move page.
Options Action: Today's Hottest WMT Trade
With nearly 190,000 option contracts traded today, there was a clear focus on hedging or speculating on further movement. The most actively traded single leg option was the 19-Sep-25 92 Put. Here’s a snapshot of that contract’s stats:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 19-Sep-25 92 P |
| Volume | 9,146 |
| VWAP price | 0.61 |
| Open interest | 18 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 11.23 |
Takeaway: What’s Next for Walmart?
While today's drop might spook some investors, Walmart's historical earnings pattern often includes a day-one reaction, followed by choppy but mildly positive movement over the next two weeks. Will history repeat? As always, options traders are quick to position for either a bounce—or more volatility ahead.
Before making your next move, take a look at Walmart’s full historical earnings stats here for deeper insights.
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