Click to view the earnings moves in YMM
YMM Stock Pops 7.2% After Q2 Earnings—Is This the Start of a New Rally?
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YMM), China's digital freight giant, delivered a robust set of second-quarter numbers today—and the market liked what it heard. YMM shares spiked 7.2% on earnings, as both revenue and net income easily topped year-ago figures. But with today’s options market expecting a hefty ±12.2% move and traders piling into call options, could there be even more fuel left in the tank?
Strong Quarter—But What Happens After Earnings Day?
Before diving into YMM’s stellar quarter, it’s worth taking a look at the historical script for the stock around earnings season. Here’s what the numbers tell us:
- On average, YMM jumps +5.3% on earnings day, posting a positive move 58.3% of the time (with an upside bias at the open and a +2.2% drift from open to close).
- The opening gap (previous close to open) is usually positive (+3.1%), and three-quarters of earnings days have started higher.
- Moves after earnings have been more mixed—historically, the stock drops -2.7% on average two days after results, but typically bounces back after a week (+2.2%) and after two weeks (+2.0%).
Quick glance: Here are the key historical stats on how YMM moves on earnings day and the days that follow:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +5.3% | +3.1% | +5.5% | -4.7% | +2.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 58.3% | 75.0% | 0 | 0 | 75.0% |
| % of Moves Down | 41.7% | 25.0% | 0 | 0 | 25.0% |
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 7.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% |
| Max Absolute Return | 15.4% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 15.2% | 11.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -1.7% | -2.7% | -0.6% | +2.2% | +2.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 27.3% | 9.1% | 27.3% | 54.5% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 72.7% | 90.9% | 72.7% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
For a full breakdown of YMM’s earnings moves and all supporting data, visit the historical earnings performance page.
Today’s Options Traders See Even More Volatility
YMM’s options market is buzzing: volume jumped to 2,432 contracts today—much higher than usual. Traders were especially focused on the 20-Mar-26 15 Call, which made up the bulk of single-leg trading activity:
| Option Contract | 20-Mar-26 15 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 1,693 |
| VWAP Price | 0.55 |
| Open Interest | 1 |
| Yesterday's Closing Price | 0.65 |
This single call contract alone represents a sizable speculative bet that YMM will rise significantly before March 2026. With so little open interest before today, this burst in volume signals fresh optimism—or a rush to capture possible upside after the company’s earnings beat.
Earnings Recap: Why Are Traders Bullish?
The market reaction is rooted in the fundamentals: Full Truck Alliance reported a 17.2% jump in revenue and a massive 50.5% surge in net income, both handily beating last year’s Q2 numbers. Notably, operational efficiency and growth in their freight matching business are driving both user adoption and higher fulfillment rates. Still, management cautioned that changes to their freight brokerage service could bring volatility to coming quarters, particularly as new fees and a likely revenue slowdown are digested.
The Big Takeaway: Opportunity—But Mind the Post-Earnings Drift
With the stock now up 7.2%, bulls may point to the company’s robust earnings history (+5.3% average gain on earnings days) and upside bias. However, the data shows that two days after earnings, the stock has tended to pull back (-2.7% on average) before bouncing after a week. For those trading YMM, keeping an eye on both the company’s new growth strategies and how post-earnings flows evolve could be key.
Curious to dig deeper? Check out the full historical earnings move data here—and watch if today’s big options bets mark the start of another leg higher for YMM.
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