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BJ’s Shares Slide 8.2% After Earnings: Do the Stats Suggest a Bounce or More Downside Ahead?
If you woke up to a big red number next to BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) this morning, you weren’t alone. The stock fell 8.2% right after announcing its latest results—even though management painted a picture of strong membership growth and raised its full-year profit outlook. But does today’s drop line up with how BJ usually reacts to earnings? And what can traders glean from historical stock moves and the latest action in the options pit?
Headline Results & Key Catalysts
In the company’s latest report, BJ’s Wholesale Club highlighted record member counts, increased fee income, and healthy sales trends outside the gasoline business. Yet the shares didn’t react positively. Here are a few numbers that grabbed headlines:
- Comparable club sales, ex-gasoline: +2.3% YoY
- Membership fee income: +9% YoY
- Adjusted EPS: $1.14
- Raised FY 2025 adjusted EPS outlook to $4.20-$4.35
Despite these positives, shares are under pressure. But should bulls (or bargain-hunters) expect the post-earnings slide to stick?
Historical Stock Moves Around Earnings: Choppy Waters
The data says that BJ is no stranger to turbulence on earnings day. Over the last dozen quarters, the stock has actually averaged a slight loss of -0.3% on the earnings date, with 58.3% of those moves heading lower. But the story isn’t all negative. On average, the stock makes a high that’s up +3.4% from the open, though moves to the day’s low tend to reach -2.9%.
Here’s how BJ’s stock usually reacts on earnings days, based on the past 12 reports (see more details here):
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.3% | -0.9% | +3.4% | -2.9% | +0.5% |
| % of Moves Up | 41.7% | 50.0% | 33.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 58.3% | 50.0% | 66.7% |
The average drift from open to close is +0.5%—meaning stocks sometimes bounce after the initial sell-off. But historically, there are more negative than positive closes (66.7% to 33.3%). So while rebounds do happen, downside follow-through is common.
Just How Big Are BJ’s Typical Earnings Swings?
The absolute numbers put today’s move in perspective:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 12.2% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 5.1% | 8.9% |
| Min Absolute Return | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
This morning’s move (down 8.2%) is big—but not the most extreme seen in recent quarters, and not wildly out of line with options traders’ pre-earnings expectation for a ±9.7% swing.
After Earnings: Is There Hope for a Quick Rebound?
Historically, BJ’s has shown some snap-back in the immediate days after earnings, with the day-after return averaging +0.4% and two-day return at +0.2%. However, looking further out, the average return turns negative, especially by day 3 and through two weeks after:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.4% | +0.2% | -1.0% | -1.2% | -1.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 54.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 27.3% |
| % of Moves Down | 45.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 72.7% |
The message? Even after sharp post-earnings drops, immediate rebounds aren’t guaranteed, and the bias tends to drift lower in the days and weeks that follow.
What About the Options Market?
Before earnings, the options market was pricing in a ±9.7% move—so today’s drop, while sharp, is within expectations. Notably, traders flocked to the September 2025 $100 puts today, making them the most actively traded single-leg option:
| Option Contract | 19-Sep-25 100 P |
|---|---|
| Volume | 1,784 |
| VWAP price | 4.08 |
| Open interest | 70 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 9.20 |
Heavy put trading like this suggests some traders may be positioning for continued downside or are looking to hedge recent volatility.
Takeaway: Pattern or Outlier?
While today’s move feels painful, it’s not totally out of character for BJ around earnings. With a strong fundamental update and upbeat membership momentum, the next few sessions could be a tug-of-war between bearish historical tendencies and improving business trends. Those looking for a quick rebound should keep in mind that historical odds favor caution: short-term bounces can happen, but the stock often drifts lower after the first reaction.
Curious to dive deeper? Check out BJ’s full historical earnings move statistics here for more data-driven insights.
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