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NVDA Call Spread Buyers Risk $7.5 Million for a Shot at $22.6 Million—Stock Rallies 1.8%
A major options trade just went through in Nvidia (NVDA): buyers committed over $7.5 million to a call spread targeting the December 19, 2025 expiration. The structure, size, and market reaction suggest growing conviction that NVDA can continue to climb in the coming months, despite short-term signs of caution from option markets.
Large Call Spread Details: 30,104 Contracts Trade on the $200-$220 Strikes
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 19-Dec-25 |
| Call Strikes | 200/220 |
| Contracts Traded | 30,104 |
| VWAP Trade Price | 5.00 |
| VWAP Bid | 4.95 |
| VWAP Ask | 5.09 |
| Reference Stock Price | 179.38 |
| Current Stock Price | 181.18 |
| Spread Mark (3:15PM) | 5.05 |
| Trade Date & Time | Aug 25, 2025 10:44:38 |
| Days to Expiration | 116 |
The average gain on the position by 3:15pm was $0.05 per spread contract, or about 1%, as the stock rallied $1.80 from the reference trade price. The position could return as much as $22.6 million if NVDA rises above $220 by expiration, compared to the $7.5 million outlay required for entry.
To see more examples of large option spreads, visit the multi-leg option trades screener.
Technicals Are Bullish: NVDA Strongly Outperforms SPY, Breaks Above Resistance
Nvidia continues to display bullish technicals, both short- and long-term. The stock gained 1.79% to $181.18, pushing above the daily resistance of $181.76. It has posted an impressive 109.2% surge from its 52-week low and stands just 1.8% below its record high. Key moving averages are all pointing higher: the price is 1.2% above its 20-day average, 8.5% above its 50-day, and a hefty 33.8% above the 250-day. Trend indicators point to a clear uptrend.
| Time Frame | NVDA Return | SPY Return | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +1.8% | -0.3% | 176.57 | 181.91 |
| 2 Weeks | -0.8% | +1.0% | 168.80 | 184.48 |
| 1 Month | +8.5% | +2.4% | 167.97 | 184.48 |
| 3 Months | +36.4% | +10.7% | 129.16 | 184.48 |
| 6 Months | +34.8% | +7.9% | 86.62 | 184.48 |
| 1 Year | +46.5% | +17.0% | 86.62 | 184.48 |
| YTD | +34.9% | +10.4% | 86.62 | 184.48 |
| 3 Years | +964.1% | +60.7% | 10.81 | 184.48 |
| 5 Years | +1329.3% | +99.1% | 10.81 | 184.48 |
Even though NVDA slightly underperformed the SPY ETF in the last two weeks, the medium and long-term trends are overwhelmingly positive for the stock. For more data, see the multi-leg trade analyzer.
Skew Indicators Are Slightly Bearish Despite the Bullish Call Spread Bet
While this massive call spread points to bullish positioning, the 30-day implied volatility skew (Market Chameleon Proprietary Skew Indicator: 50% rank) indicates the options market remains slightly cautious for the near term. The skew rank suggests a neutral-to-slightly-bearish sentiment compared to the past year's extremes—meaning traders expect moderate upside but are not dismissing the risk of short-term setbacks.
Product News: AI Hardware Launch Could Be a Catalyst
Supporting the recent activity, NVIDIA just launched its Jetson AGX Thor platform, touted as a major leap forward for physical AI and robotics. Major industrial names—Amazon Robotics, Boston Dynamics, Meta—are early adopters. With Jetson Thor providing up to 7.5x the AI compute power of its predecessor and fueling over two million developers, such news could spur institutional interest in NVDA’s growth story, explaining part of the appetite for long-term bullish options bets.
Key Takeaway: Options Bet on Big Upside, But Skew Warns Not Everyone Is Convinced
The scale of this call spread shows there are well-heeled traders willing to bet millions on NVDA breaking well past $200 by the end of 2025, even as short-term options sentiment stays neutral to cautious. With the technical trend in the stock still positive, this options activity may inspire other investors to monitor NVDA for further bullish momentum or a potential turn.
Curious about more call spreads or how these complex strategies work? Visit the multi-leg trade screener to track the latest institutional positioning.
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