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Large Call Spread Trade Nets 4.4% Gain: What Are VLO Traders Seeing?
Early trading on Valero Energy (VLO) options caught attention as a sizable 1,164-contract call spread was executed for a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $3.94. As of midday, the trade's value had already increased to $4.11—netting buyers an average gain of $0.17, or 4.4%. What’s behind this substantial bet, and what do current market indicators reveal?
Key Details: $229K Wager on September 145-155 Call Spread
| Trade Details | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 19-Sep-25 |
| Strike Prices | 145 - 155 (Call Spread) |
| Number of Contracts | 1,164 |
| Days to Expiration | 25 |
| VWAP Trade Price | 3.94 |
| VWAP Bid Price | 3.77 |
| VWAP Ask Price | 4.08 |
| Reference Stock Price (at trade) | 146.05 |
| Current Stock Price | 146.80 |
| Trade Value Paid | $229,176 |
| Potential Max Profit | ~$353,040 |
To break even, the buyers need VLO shares to climb past the $148.94 mark by September 19, 2025, and to realize the full profit, the stock must close above $155 by expiration. Want to see more details or similar strategies? Visit the multi-leg trade analyzer.
Technical Indicators Are Bullish Despite Underperformance vs SPY Over 1 Year
Looking at the current technical backdrop, VLO's momentum stands out—particularly over recent months, even though its 1-year performance (+5.5%) has lagged SPY’s (+17.2%). But, over the last three months and two weeks, VLO returned +15.0% and +10.2%, respectively, handily outperforming SPY in both windows. The year-to-date performance is also strong at +22.6%.
| Duration | VLO Return | Low | High | SPY Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +1.0% | 144.30 | 147.57 | -0.1% |
| 2 Week | +10.2% | 130.78 | 147.57 | +1.2% |
| 1 Month | +2.0% | 130.78 | 147.70 | +2.6% |
| 3 Month | +15.0% | 125.10 | 155.12 | +10.9% |
| 6 Month | +10.7% | 99.00 | 155.12 | +8.1% |
| 1 Year | +5.5% | 99.00 | 155.12 | +17.3% |
| YTD | +22.6% | 99.00 | 155.12 | +10.6% |
| 3 Year | +34.0% | 97.73 | 184.79 | +61.0% |
| 5 Year | +218.2% | 35.44 | 184.79 | +99.5% |
Technically, the stock is 7.0% above its 20-day moving average, 4.7% above the 50-day, and 10.6% over the 250-day moving average—suggesting short-term bullish momentum. Despite a small drop at the open (-0.3%), VLO rallied by 1.2% from its opening price and is now pressing near a daily resistance of 148.02.
Option Skew Indicator: Slightly Bearish Market Sentiment
While the technical picture is robust, options markets are flashing a more cautious signal. The proprietary 30-day implied volatility skew for VLO stands at a 36% rank (where 0% is most bearish and 100% is most bullish over the last year), indicating a slightly bearish outlook from forward-looking options data. This skew suggests traders are not aggressively betting on upside moves and might be positioning for some short-term risk.
Potential Takeaways: Why Watch VLO Now?
This sizeable call spread signals that at least one trader is wagering a meaningful sum—over $229K—that VLO will move above $145, with outsized rewards if it surpasses $155 by September 2025. With technicals showing recent strength but options sentiment only slightly bearish, VLO could be at an interesting crossroads.
For those seeking to dig deeper or screen for other multi-leg option trades and spreads, check the multi-leg trade screener.
As always, these insights aren’t investment advice—but they may point to areas worth watching, especially if VLO keeps breaking technical resistance levels in the weeks ahead.
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NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
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