Click to view the earnings moves in RY
RY Smashes Past Options Market Expectations With 5.3% Post-Earnings Surge
If you’re tracking earnings season, Royal Bank Of Canada (NYSE: RY) just served up a surprise that few saw coming. Today, RY shares jumped 5.3%, outpacing the options market's expected move of just ±3.7%. With 1,473 contracts changing hands, it was a day packed with volatility and surprises.
How Does This Move Compare To History?
For investors trying to make sense of the big jump, it's useful to check how RY typically behaves on earnings days. Historically, RY’s earnings-day stock moves have been quite balanced—averaging out at 0.0% over the last 12 quarters, with exactly 50% of the moves positive and 50% negative. On average, the stock opens slightly higher (+0.3%), but intraday action often leans negative, with an average open-to-low move of -1.8%. Post-earnings, the trend has generally favored muted movement rather than fireworks.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | 0.0% | +0.3% | +1.1% | -1.8% | -0.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 66.7% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
See more on historical RY earnings moves here.
What About the Size of Past Moves?
Despite today's impressive jump, historical average moves (measured in absolute terms) have generally stayed much lower. The average earnings move for RY has been 2.5% and rarely surpasses 5.4%. This means today’s performance sits at the very top end of historical extremes for the stock on an earnings day.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Max Absolute Return | 5.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
How Does RY Perform After Earnings?
The next question for traders: Does RY tend to keep moving after earnings, or does it stall out? Looking back, RY usually enjoys some short-term follow-through. One day after reporting, the stock averages a +1.1% return, with 91.7% of moves positive. The trend slowly reverses by the two-week mark, but short-term, the bulls have historically had the upper hand right after earnings.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.1% | +1.0% | +0.5% | +0.3% | -0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 91.7% | 83.3% | 75.0% | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| % of Moves Down | 8.3% | 16.7% | 25.0% | 41.7% | 58.3% |
Options Spotlight: The Most Actively Traded Contract
On the options side, traders homed in on one standout contract. The most heavily traded single-leg option today was the 19-Sep-25 150 Call. Here's a snapshot of today's action for that contract:
| Option Contract | 19-Sep-25 150 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 264 |
| VWAP Price | 0.59 |
| Open Interest | 108 |
| Yesterday's Closing Price | 0.20 |
Key Takeaway
Today's surge for RY is unusual and historic, outpacing not only expectations but almost every prior earnings move in recent years. The big follow-through seen after earnings in the past means traders may want to keep an eye on how RY settles over the next few sessions. Curious about the details or looking for more context? You can dive into more historical data on RY’s earnings moves here.
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