Click to view the earnings moves in MCD
Did McDonald’s Just Cook Up Another Surprise for Investors?
McDonald’s (MCD) is grabbing attention today, rallying 2.7% after announcing solid Q2 2025 earnings that topped expectations. The world’s biggest fast-food chain delivered robust growth—systemwide sales soared 8%, global comparable sales rose 3.8%, and EPS jumped 12% year-over-year to $3.14. But if you’re watching today’s bounce, you’re likely wondering: how does MCD typically move on and after earnings? Is today’s jump just the appetizer or the full meal?
Earnings in Focus: Strong Results Fuel Stock Reaction
The options market was bracing for a move of about ±3.2% in either direction, but MCD landed a little under that with a 2.7% uptick so far—much better than the previous quarter’s drop of -1.9%. Meanwhile, today’s options activity was brisk, clocking in at 12,720 contracts traded. What stood out most? The single most traded contract was the 08-Aug-25 310 C, as traders seemed to chase more upside.
| Option Contract | 08-Aug-25 310 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 528 |
| VWAP price | 1.15 |
| Open interest | 1,018 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 1.21 |
What Does History Tell Us About MCD’s Earnings Moves?
If you’re looking for clues in past data, the history around MCD’s earnings days is more mixed than you might think. Here’s how the stock typically behaves based on historical earnings price movement statistics:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.8% | 0.0% | +1.8% | -1.0% | +0.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 66.7% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 33.3% | 41.7% |
On average, MCD posts a modest +0.8% gain on earnings days, but those moves are a coin toss—split equally between positive and negative. Most of the initial move (the “gap”) is flat, but from open to close, MCD adds +0.7% about 58% of the time, while drops happen around 42% of the time. The swing to the high averages +1.8%, with dips to the low around -1.0%, showing a slight upside tilt throughout the day.
How Big Are These Earnings Moves, Really?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
The average earnings day move is about 2.1%, with a maximum historical jump of 4.8%. In other words, today’s action sits toward the higher end, but isn’t out of the ordinary. If you’re trading options or playing for volatility, these numbers give perspective on what’s “normal” for MCD around earnings events.
What Happens After Earnings?
Curious if today’s bounce could turn into a trend? Here’s a quick look at what typically happens in the days following MCD’s earnings:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 45.5% | 63.6% | 72.7% | 63.6% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 54.5% | 36.4% | 27.3% | 36.4% | 36.4% |
The biggest tailwind tends to come three days after the report, when the average return rises to +0.9% and over 70% of outcomes are positive. That trend can extend into the second week, which sees gains nearly two-thirds of the time.
The Takeaway: Appetite for Gains—But Manage Expectations
While today’s upbeat Q2 numbers gave MCD a boost, historical data shows that outsized, sustained moves are the exception, not the rule. Investors can expect some post-earnings drift—often up—but those chasing the rally should know that returns typically settle into a slower, steadier climb in the weeks after. Want to explore more stats? Dive deeper into the full historical stock performance around earnings for MCD and see how this quarter stacks up.
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