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Massive Volume in Sep-12-25 180 Call Signals Intense Focus—But IV Tumble Tempers Expectations
NVDA's options market is making waves today, with one contract towering above the rest: the Sep-12-25 180 call. As of 1:50 PM, this single option accounted for an eye-catching 208,849 contracts—representing 17.4% of all NVDA option activity so far. That’s an unusually concentrated volume for a single strike and expiration.
The stock itself hovered at $177.18, slipping by $0.14 (-0.08%). But with so much action focused on a single out-of-the-money call, what are traders signaling—and does the volatility tell the real story?
Implied Volatility Drops Over 20%—A Surprise for Bullish Contracts
While outsized call activity often hints at bullish speculation, the data today suggest a much more tempered outlook. The average implied volatility (VWIV) for the contract fell to 24.5, a dramatic drop of 20.2% from the previous day’s close at 30.7. Even the highest volatility seen intraday was just 33.5, but the contract settled lower as trading progressed, with the last trade printed at a volatility of 23.3. For context, opening IV stood at 28.4, and it briefly touched a low of 21.3 during the session.
On the price side, the contract traded as high as $2.00 at the open but closed recent prints at just $0.31—down sharply from a previous close of $0.98. The average trade (VWAP) for the session landed at $0.81, capturing the range of speculative activity.
| Contract | Volume | % of NVDA Option Volume | VWAP | Last Price | Implied Vol (Last) | Prev Day IV | Change from Prev IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-12-25 180 Call | 208,849 | 17.4% | $0.81 | $0.31 | 23.3 | 30.7 | -20.2% |
Professional Sellers Dominate—Institutional Flows Signal Cautious Stance
Diving deeper into order flow, 81.3% of transactions skewed to the sell side, compared to just 18.7% bought—an overwhelming majority. Professional or large-scale trades made up 68% of the volume, leaving retail participants with only 32%. This seller-dominated profile, combined with falling implied volatility, suggests institutional players are either cashing in on prior bullish runs or are comfortable taking premium with muted expectations for an upside breakout.
Open interest stood at 85,900 as of this morning, having risen by 9,890 contracts based on previous trading activity. However, keep in mind that today’s volume surge will not be reflected until open interest updates tomorrow. The key insight: so far, there’s little evidence of aggressive bullish conviction for immediate gains.
Key Takeaway—Watch for Follow-Through or Rapid Position Shifts
The burst of volume in NVDA’s Sep-12-25 180 call is impossible to ignore, but the real message is in the details: implied volatility dropped sharply and selling dominated the flow, particularly among professional traders. Rather than betting on a near-term surge, it appears many participants may be taking a wait-and-see approach, capitalizing on premium while keeping risk in check.
For investors, the critical signal isn’t just in the numbers but in what might come next. If open interest jumps again tomorrow and volatility stabilizes or rebounds, the tone could shift quickly. For now, NVDA’s options market shows measured optimism, tempered by significant caution from larger market players. Anyone watching this name should stay tuned for updates—especially as new data arrives with the next session’s open interest report.
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