Nucor’s Q3 2025 Earnings Guidance Highlights Softer Outlook but Continued Shareholder Returns
Q3 2025 Guidance Suggests Decrease Across All Operating Segments
Nucor Corporation has issued its guidance for the third quarter ending October 4, 2025, setting the stage for a potentially challenging quarter. The company expects earnings between $2.05 and $2.15 per diluted share—down from $2.60 in the previous quarter, but well above last year’s $1.05 for the same period.
This decline, as management explains, is projected across all three of Nucor’s key operating segments: steel mills, steel products, and raw materials. The main factors include lower volumes and tighter margins in steel mills, higher average costs in steel products despite stable pricing and volumes, and softer profitability in scrap processing for the raw materials division.
| Quarter | EPS (Diluted) | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 (Actual) | $1.05 | -- |
| Q2 2025 (Actual) | $2.60 | +147.62% |
| Q3 2025 (Guidance) | $2.05–$2.15 | +95.24% to +104.76% |
Share Buybacks and Dividends Underscore Focus on Capital Returns
Despite this softer earnings outlook, Nucor continues to actively return capital to shareholders. So far in the third quarter, the company has repurchased about 0.7 million shares at an average price of $140.46. Year-to-date, share buybacks total roughly 4.8 million shares at an average of $126.26. Including both share repurchases and dividends, Nucor has returned around $985 million to its investors in 2025.
| Timeframe | Shares Repurchased (millions) | Avg. Repurchase Price | Capital Returned ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 (to-date) | 0.7 | $140.46 | Included in YTD |
| 2025 YTD | 4.8 | $126.26 | ~$985 |
Segment Breakdown Signals Cost and Volume Headwinds
Nucor’s steel mills are expected to see earnings contract due to both lower shipment volumes and tighter profit margins. In steel products, higher average costs per ton are forecast to outpace stable selling prices and volumes. Meanwhile, the raw materials segment—driven by Nucor’s scrap processing business—is set for lower profitability as commodity headwinds persist.
For investors and market watchers, these projections point to persistent cyclical and inflationary pressures affecting industrial businesses into late 2025. Still, compared to last year’s Q3 results, Nucor is forecasting almost a doubling in quarterly earnings, highlighting the company's operational improvements and scale advantages.
What’s Next: Earnings Release and Conference Call on October 27–28
Nucor plans to report actual third-quarter results after market close on Monday, October 27, with a follow-up conference call the next morning. The outcome of this earnings cycle will offer greater clarity on management’s expectations—and how effectively the company is managing costs and navigating ongoing market challenges.
While short-term pressures may temper earnings, Nucor’s strong capital return policy and status as North America’s largest recycler offer ongoing reasons for both institutional and retail investors to monitor the stock’s progress as 2025 unfolds.
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