Super Group Lifts 2025 Guidance: Strong Sports Betting and Casino Engagement Drive Upward Revision
Upgraded Guidance Signals Resilient Operations and Scalability
Super Group (SGHC), the parent of Betway and Spin, is projecting even stronger growth in 2025 than initially anticipated. Management announced raised full-year revenue guidance to a range of $2.13 billion to $2.20 billion, up from earlier expectations of over $2.04 billion. Group Adjusted EBITDA—a key profit metric—has also been lifted significantly, now targeted between $550 million and $560 million, well above the previous range of $470 million to $480 million.
Strong Q3 Performance and Margin Improvement Set the Tone
This revision follows an unexpectedly robust third quarter, traditionally a softer seasonal period. The company credited optimized sports betting pricing, operational efficiency, and steady casino engagement as the primary drivers behind the outperformance. Notably, Super Group’s core international business remains the main profit engine, even as the company completes its exit from the U.S. market, expected in early Q4 2025.
Guidance Table Highlights Upward Revisions
| Metric | Prior 2025 Guidance | New 2025 Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Group Revenue | Greater than $2.04 billion | $2.13–$2.20 billion |
| Ex-U.S. Revenue | N/A | $2.09–$2.16 billion |
| U.S. Revenue | N/A | Greater than $40 million |
| Group Adjusted EBITDA | $470–$480 million | $550–$560 million |
| Ex-U.S. Adjusted EBITDA | N/A | $575–$585 million |
| U.S. Adjusted EBITDA | N/A | Approximately -$25 million |
Management Highlights Consistency and Long-Term Value Creation
CEO Neal Menashe pointed to a resilient business model with “strong contributions from both sports and casino, deeper customer engagement, and continued margin improvement.” CFO Alinda van Wyk echoed this, citing cost discipline and improved product traction as reasons for optimism about sustained top-line and margin expansion.
International Core Remains the Profit Driver
Super Group’s Ex-U.S. operations continue to underpin overall growth, now targeted to deliver $2.09 billion to $2.16 billion in revenue and $575 million to $585 million in Adjusted EBITDA in 2025. The U.S. division is expected to post a loss of around $25 million as the business completes its exit, but the overall picture for international operations is robust.
Forward Outlook: Guidance Boost Supported by Underlying Business Trends
The company credits its upward revision to operational leverage in core markets, disciplined execution, and increasing customer engagement. These trends are set against a backdrop of a brand-led, data-driven strategy, which management believes enhances the scalability and resilience of the business, despite challenges in the U.S. market.
Takeaway: Investor Day Could Provide More Clarity
Super Group plans to provide additional details and reconciliation of financial metrics during its Investor Day on September 18, 2025. For investors, the upgraded guidance and focus on operational consistency could point to ongoing momentum in key markets, making the upcoming event a timely opportunity to gain deeper insight into management’s long-term vision and targets.
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