Super Group Lifts 2025 Guidance as Revenue and EBITDA Projections Climb

Upbeat Revenue Outlook Reflects Strong Q3 and International Momentum

Super Group (SGHC), the parent of Betway and Spin, has announced a substantial increase to its 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance after outperforming expectations in the third quarter, a period often weighed down by seasonality. The group now expects full-year revenue to reach between $2.125 billion and $2.200 billion, up from the previous projection of over $2.04 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is now anticipated in the $550 million to $560 million range—well above prior guidance of $470 million to $480 million.

According to management, robust results were powered by stronger sports outcomes, more effective pricing strategies, and sustained engagement from casino customers, particularly across its key international markets. CEO Neal Menashe noted the group is “seeing strong contributions from both sports and casino, deeper customer engagement, and continued margin improvement.”

International Markets Continue to Outshine U.S. Operations

One of the main takeaways from the guidance update is the ongoing shift away from U.S. operations. For 2025, Super Group projects ex-U.S. revenue between $2.085 billion and $2.160 billion, with U.S. revenue contributing over $40 million as the company finalizes its planned U.S. exit by early Q4 2025. Adjusted EBITDA for non-U.S. businesses is forecast at $575 million to $585 million, while U.S. operations are expected to show a modest adjusted EBITDA loss of roughly $25 million before closure.

Operational Efficiency and Product-Led Strategy Drive Margin Gains

CFO Alinda van Wyk highlighted improved cost ratios and increased traction for the group’s product-focused strategy as core drivers of recent success. With more efficient trading, optimized pricing, and scalable brand and data analytics, Super Group has been able to enhance both top-line and margin expansion even as the company navigates softer market periods and increased global competition.

The group remains committed to its long-term growth vision and will host an Investor Day on September 18, 2025, to provide further details on performance and strategy.

What Does the Guidance Revision Signal for Stakeholders?

This guidance revision is not only a sign of ongoing resilience, but also demonstrates Super Group’s strategic shift toward international opportunities and operational leverage. While the U.S. exit is a notable pivot, the improved projections suggest a healthy outlook driven by more predictable and profitable markets abroad.

As Super Group finalizes its U.S. transition, investors may want to watch for third-quarter results in November and the outcomes of its product-led growth strategy in diverse jurisdictions. The ability to maintain growth across core geographies and continually optimize customer engagement will be crucial for sustaining this positive momentum into 2025 and beyond.

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