Click to view the earnings moves in KNOP
Is KNOP Headed for Another Post-Earnings Slide? Here’s What History Tells Us
It’s earnings day for Knot Offshore Partners LP (KNOP), and all eyes are on how the stock will react. The options market was betting on a sizable move—±8.9%—in the stock price, a sign of elevated anticipation. But if history is any guide, investors should keep expectations in check.
How Has KNOP Traded on Earnings Day?
Looking back at the last 12 quarters, KNOP has typically delivered lackluster performance on earnings days. The stock’s average move on the day of results has been -0.7%, with positive moves happening only 43% of the time. Even the open-to-close drift trends only mildly positive, averaging a gain of +0.7% on the day and closing up in 57% of quarters.
The biggest tendency? Downside gaps at the open, averaging -1.5% with nearly three-quarters of earnings days starting in the red.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.7% | -1.5% | +4.5% | -4.0% | +0.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 42.9% | 28.6% | 57.1% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 57.1% | 71.4% | 42.9% |
Want to dig deeper into historical price action around earnings? Check out the full earnings move stats here.
Big Swings—But Usually Downward After the Numbers Drop
If you’re hoping for a rebound after earnings, KNOP’s recent record says it’s better to brace for continued pressure. On average, the stock has fallen -4.4% on the day after earnings and continued sliding for two weeks, averaging a cumulative loss of -6.1% with more than 85% of periods in the red.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -4.4% | -4.7% | -4.8% | -5.3% | -6.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 42.9% | 14.3% |
| % of Moves Down | 100.0% | 100.0% | 71.4% | 57.1% | 85.7% |
How Large Are the Typical Swings?
Though KNOP tends to lose ground after earnings, the size of those moves is nothing to scoff at. Over the last three years, absolute average price swings (up or down) have been sizable, with an average earnings day move of 7.0% and max moves reaching 18.3%.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% |
| Max Absolute Return | 18.3% | 8.5% | 14.9% | 14.0% | 11.8% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
What’s Happening in the Options Market?
Even with history as a warning, the options market was looking for fireworks: a ±8.9% move implied. And today’s most actively traded single leg option was a long-dated October 2025 call:
| Option Contract | 17-Oct-25 10 C |
| Volume | 109 |
| VWAP price | 0.27 |
| Open interest | 1,014 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.23 |
While today’s option activity (38 total contracts) is well below the level expected ahead of big moves, the outsized action in this call suggests some traders are looking well beyond today’s headlines.
What Should You Watch Next?
Will this quarter break KNOP’s historical trend of lackluster earnings reactions and extended post-earnings losses? With options pricing in nearly a 9% move and a few bold call buyers looking out to 2025, it’s worth keeping the name on your radar as the dust settles.
Curious to see how KNOP has performed around earnings in detail? Don’t miss the historical earnings move statistics.
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