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Macy’s Earnings Spark a 16.6% Rally—How Does This Compare to Past Performance?
Macy’s (M) made a splash in today’s session, soaring 16.6% after its second quarter results soundly beat expectations and guidance was raised. This move didn’t just outpace Wall Street’s modest hopes—it doubled what options traders were bracing for, with the options market pricing in only an 8.4% move.
So, how does today’s explosive jump compare to Macy’s history of post-earnings moves? Let’s break down the data, see what the odds say, and look ahead at what’s driving all this market action.
What Typically Happens to Macy’s Stock on Earnings Day?
If you’re wondering whether today’s surge is business as usual, history suggests otherwise. Macy’s shares usually post an average gain of +2.5% on earnings days, with 58.3% of moves to the upside. Gaps at the open (versus the previous close) tend to average just +0.9%. But after the open, Macy’s often continues to trend upward—rising from the open to close 1.6% on average, with gains 66.7% of the time.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +2.5% | +0.9% | +5.2% | -3.5% | +1.6% |
| % of Moves Up | 58.3% | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 66.7% |
| % of Moves Down | 41.7% | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 33.3% |
Data source: Macy's historical earnings stock performance
Just How Rare Was Today’s Move?
To put it in context, the absolute average move Macy’s makes on earnings is 7.3%—about half of what we saw today. The previous max move in recent years was 16.9%, showing today’s price action is right at the upper end of historic extremes.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 16.9% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
For traders and investors, today’s rally isn’t the norm. Historically, when Macy’s stock moved this much, it usually coincided with a fundamental surprise or major shift in outlook—which is exactly what we got: Macy’s posted the best comparable sales growth in three years, exceeded net sales guidance, and even raised full-year forecasts. It’s the type of reset that brings both Wall Street and retail investors back into the story.
Does Momentum Carry Over After Earnings?
If you missed the first leg of the move, you might be wondering: Does Macy’s usually keep climbing after such a jump?
History says that after the dust settles on earnings day, Macy’s stock still averages gains in the following sessions: +1.2% on average three days later, and gains persist through one and two weeks out, with positive moves nearly two-thirds of the time after 3 days and two weeks.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.3% | +1.0% | +1.2% | +1.6% | +1.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 36.4% | 54.5% | 63.6% | 54.5% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 63.6% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 45.5% | 36.4% |
Options Action: Today’s Most Popular Macy’s Trade
Trading volume also told the story today. Over 107,000 options contracts changed hands—far above average volume—making this an unusually active session. The standout was a September 2025 $16 Call contract, which was by far the most traded single-leg option on the board. Below are the contract details:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 05-Sep-25 16 C |
| Volume | 8,707 |
| VWAP price | 0.44 |
| Open interest | 3,203 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.05 |
Given today’s giant price move and surge in call activity, it looks like some traders were betting on an outsized earnings beat—or are quickly repositioning for even more upside. Either way, this options action could be a signal of increased bullish conviction, at least in the near term.
Takeaway: Where Does Macy’s Go from Here?
Today’s earnings pop wasn’t just big—it was one for the record books, easily topping both market expectations and the stock’s usual earnings-day action. With a fresh round of bullish news, strong sales at Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury, and aggressive cost control, the stock now finds itself with fresh momentum—and options traders piling in.
For those interested in Macy’s earnings patterns, you can dive deeper into historical stock performance around earnings here. If the past is any guide, today’s action could be the start of a new, more volatile chapter in Macy’s market story—but only time (and maybe next quarter’s numbers) will tell if this is a trend that sticks.
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