Chili's Powers Brinker’s Upbeat 2026 Guidance with 8.6% Sales Surge—Here’s What’s Fueling Momentum
Chili’s Delivers Industry-Leading Sales Growth, Lifting Brinker’s Guidance
Brinker International (NYSE:EAT) is turning up the heat on Wall Street expectations, issuing higher full-year 2026 guidance after Chili’s posted an 8.6% jump in comparable restaurant sales for Q2. The turnaround at Chili’s marks the brand’s 19th consecutive quarter of growth and propels a new two-year comp sales gain of 43%—with management citing improved guest experience, menu innovation, and disciplined execution as key ingredients.
Margin Expansion Seen at Chili’s; Maggiano’s Remains a Challenge
Chili’s momentum isn’t showing any signs of cooling. Not only did it drive broader 7.5% comp growth for Brinker as a whole, but margin improvement also stood out: Chili’s achieved a 19.1% restaurant operating margin (up from 18.7% last year), while operating income as a percent of revenue rose to 15.2%. Meanwhile, Maggiano’s posted a disappointing 2.4% sales decrease, with margin and profit pressure, reflecting a gap in traffic versus last year. The brand is now refocusing on core Italian-American favorites and service quality under its "Back to Maggiano’s" strategy.
| Brand | Q2 Company Sales ($M) | Q2 Comp Sales | Q2 Operating Margin | Margin Change vs. Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chili’s | 1,304.1 | 8.6% | 19.1% | +0.4% |
| Maggiano’s | 134.7 | (2.4)% | 16.0% | -6.7% |
| Brinker (Total) | 1,438.8 | 7.5% | 18.8% | -0.3% |
Updated 2026 Guidance: Chili’s Strength Drives Upbeat Revenue and EPS Outlook
The latest guidance underscores confidence at Brinker’s helm: full-year revenue is now forecast between $5.76 billion and $5.83 billion, up roughly $160 million from the prior range. Adjusted EPS (excluding special items) is seen landing between $10.45 and $10.85. Notably, this already factors in a $20 million revenue headwind and a $0.15 hit to EPS from Winter Storm Fern.
| Guidance Metric | FY26 Updated | FY26 Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenues | $5.76B – $5.83B | $5.60B – $5.70B |
| Net Income/Diluted Share (non-GAAP) | $10.45 – $10.85 | $9.90 – $10.50 |
| Capital Expenditures | $250M – $260M | $270M – $290M |
Sales Growth Comes from More Than Pricing—Traffic Up for Chili’s, Too
A closer look at the components of sales growth shows Chili’s is gaining real customer traction—not just padding results through menu pricing. Of the brand’s 8.6% comp growth, 4.4% came from price, 1.5% from traffic, and 2.7% from mix shift. This points to rising foot traffic and a stickier base, reinforcing management’s focus on the guest experience and value propositions.
Shareholder Returns and Outlook: Buybacks Signal Confidence
Brinker repurchased $100 million of its own stock during the quarter, reflecting ongoing confidence. Despite pressure from Maggiano’s, overall net income rose to $128.5 million (up $10 million year-over-year), and diluted EPS climbed to $2.86. With 13 net new restaurants expected this year, the company is positioned to capitalize further on Chili’s momentum—though investors will watch for progress at Maggiano’s.
Key Takeaway: Chili’s Momentum Sets the Pace, but Broader Turnaround Still in Progress
The story heading into mid-2026 is Chili’s clear leadership within Brinker’s portfolio—delivering higher sales, expanding margins, and supporting a raised outlook. While Maggiano’s still faces challenges, Brinker’s strategic investments and focus on execution could prove pivotal. Stakeholders may want to monitor segment trends, operational improvements, and the broader consumer environment as Brinker progresses through the year. For further insights, management will share deeper details on today’s 9 a.m. CT earnings call, or you can review more brand-level trends on the Brinker IR website.
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