Click to view the earnings moves in ASX
ASX Earnings Day: Will History Repeat or Surprise?
ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: ASX) just reported earnings, and traders are bracing themselves. While the latest stock price sits at $17.54, up 1.0% today, options markets had anticipated a move of ±4.7%—suggesting expectations of significant volatility. But does the historical data back up that notion, or do earnings days at ASX tend to be more muted than predicted?
How Has ASX Stock Performed on Past Earnings?
Reviewing the company’s last 12 quarters, the record tells a story of surprises and disappointments. On average, ASX shares have slipped by -0.3% on the day earnings are announced. The first response at the opening bell is typically a mild rise of +0.5%, but the enthusiasm has often faded, with the average open-to-close move coming in at -0.8%. Interestingly, the odds are a coin toss: 50% of earnings days have resulted in gains, and 50% in losses compared to the previous close.
Want to explore more granular ASX earnings move stats? See the full historical stock performance page.
Historical Earnings Day Performance: A Closer Look
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.3% | +0.5% | +1.6% | -2.5% | -0.8% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 66.7% | 33.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 33.3% | 58.3% |
How Big Are the Swings? Absolute Returns Table
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 8.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.0% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
Bumps (and Bounces) After Earnings
So what happens once the dust settles? Historically, the biggest positive drift usually shows up two days after earnings, with an average gain of +1.7% and 81.8% of cases seeing the stock close higher. The typical ‘post-earnings drift’—where the price keeps moving after results are digested—leads to net gains over both the next day and the following week, though the returns then flatten out by two weeks.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.6% | +1.7% | +0.6% | +1.0% | +0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 54.5% | 81.8% | 63.6% | 72.7% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 45.5% | 18.2% | 36.4% | 27.3% | 45.5% |
What Could Move ASX From Here?
Today’s price action could have more fuel in the tank, thanks to recently published revenue numbers showing solid year-over-year growth across major business segments. While options traders had expected a move around 4.7%, actual moves have been smaller on average, at least based on the last 12 quarters. With a light options volume today, traders may be waiting for clearer signals. But history shows that even tepid earnings reactions can be followed by sharp swings over the next few days, especially if news flow intensifies.
For traders eyeing ASX, it’s worth watching not only the initial reaction but the days that follow. If past is prologue, the biggest surprises (and possible opportunities) might emerge after the first headlines fade. Check out the full ASX earnings move stats page here for more deep-dives and detailed history.
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