Click to view the earnings moves in MCD
Another Earnings Day for McDonald's—But Does History Favor the Bulls or the Bears?
McDonald's (MCD) just dropped its latest earnings, and with the stock recently trading at $323.57 (down -0.7% today), traders are dissecting what history might signal for the days ahead. The options market went into today’s event bracing for a swing of about ±3.1%—but what have actual earnings moves looked like in the past?
MCD Earnings Day in Perspective: Past Moves and Today’s Expectations
Over the last 12 quarters, McDonald's has averaged a modest +0.7% return on earnings day. In fact, the split has been exactly even, with the stock finishing higher half the time and lower the other half. The open-to-close move, however, offers a more optimistic tilt, averaging out at +0.9%, and two-thirds of these sessions closing in the green. Meanwhile, initial gaps at the open have averaged a slight dip (-0.2%), but with a surprising 67% bias to opening higher rather than lower.
Looking for more details? Dive into the historical earnings reaction breakdown for MCD here.
Summary Table: Historical MCD Stock Moves on Earnings Day
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.7% | -0.2% | +2.1% | -1.0% | +0.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
What stands out? While open-to-close trends lean bullish, gap moves at the open have been tame or even slightly negative. But the real takeaway is that MCD often surprises after the open—so a quiet start doesn’t rule out drama later in the session.
Magnitude of Moves: How Big Are The Swings?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| Max Absolute Return | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
This suggests options traders haven't been far off—actual moves tend to come in under what’s priced-in, but surprises (almost 5% in Max Absolute Return!) do happen.
Post-Earnings Trends: Does Momentum Last?
So what happens after the earnings fireworks fade? Here’s what historical data says about MCD’s post-earnings drift over the following two weeks:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.2% | -0.1% | +0.3% | +0.5% | +0.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 41.7% | 50.0% | 58.3% | 58.3% | 58.3% |
| % of Moves Down | 58.3% | 50.0% | 41.7% | 41.7% | 41.7% |
While the average immediate move is modest or even slightly negative, positive drift tends to play out within a week or two after earnings, with over half of the outcomes being positive during those windows. Traders eyeing quick flips may want to temper expectations, but those with patience have often been rewarded over time.
Spotlight: The Most Actively Traded Option Today
Options traders aggressively targeted the 13-Feb-26 327.5 C call contract—a bold move just above today’s trading range. Here’s how the numbers shake out:
| Option Contract | 13-Feb-26 327.5 C |
| Volume | 431 |
| VWAP price | 2.71 |
| Open interest | 1,014 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 4.45 |
With 431 contracts traded against an open interest of 1,014, traders are making significant bets—but with the contract’s value dropping from yesterday’s close, it seems some are cutting exposure post-earnings, while others could be betting on a recovery above the $327.5 strike in the months ahead.
Takeaway: Is MCD's Earnings Reaction Predictable?
For McDonald’s, the post-earnings script has often meant a modest move at first followed by potential gains over the following days or weeks. However, today’s options action and historical tendencies suggest that while big swings can happen, patience often wins out. Whether you’re buying burgers or options, it pays to watch how MCD sizzles after earnings.
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