Click to view the earnings moves in DE
Why Is Deere’s Stock Up 11.1%—And What Does History Tell Us?
Deere (DE) delivered a jolt of excitement to the market today, soaring 11.1% after its latest earnings release—more than double what the options market was pricing in. Options traders were only expecting a ±5.8% move, making this rally a true outlier.
If you’re wondering if this kind of jump is normal for DE—or if there’s reason to expect continued volatility—let’s break down the historical stock performance around earnings and see how today’s move stacks up. For deep dives into historical stats, you can always check the full DE earnings move page.
Today’s Options Highlight: Massive Action on a Long-Dated Call
While the stock was rocketing higher, one options contract dominated the conversation: The 20-Feb-26 640 Call. Here’s a quick snapshot of the most actively traded single-leg option of the day:
| Option Contract | 20-Feb-26 640 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 1,157 |
| VWAP price | 14.89 |
| Open interest | 594 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 1.89 |
What Do the Numbers Say? DE’s Typical Earnings Moves vs. Today
Let’s compare today’s action to how DE has typically performed on earnings days. Over the last 12 quarters:
- Average return on earnings day: -0.8%
- Only 33.3% of moves have been to the upside—meaning today’s positive surprise is a rarity.
- On average, the biggest intraday move to the high: +2.9%; to the low: -2.1%
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.8% | -1.0% | +2.9% | -2.1% | +0.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 33.3% | 41.7% | 41.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 66.7% | 58.3% | 58.3% |
Notice that the typical move on earnings day is much tamer than what we’re seeing now. This 11.1% jump is not just rare—it’s nearly off the historical charts.
The Size of the Swings: How Big Are Typical Moves?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| Max Absolute Return | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% |
| Min Absolute Return | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
After Earnings: What Happens Next?
Does this surge translate into continued momentum? Historically, the answer is mixed. Here’s a snapshot of what’s happened after DE’s earnings moves in the past:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.2% | +0.6% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 58.3% | 41.7% |
Based on history, the stock tends to settle into smaller gains after the big earnings-day moves, with a roughly 50/50 shot of going higher the next day. The odds are nearly evenly split on whether that initial momentum continues or fades within a week or two.
What Should Traders Watch Next?
This surprise rally puts DE in rarified air compared to its typical earnings day. Whether this is the start of a bigger move or a case of "too far, too fast" is worth watching closely in the days ahead—especially with many traders making bold bets in the options market.
For more on historical earnings reactions, patterns, and odds, check the full DE historical earnings page at Market Chameleon.
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