Eldorado Gold Targets 40% Output Growth by 2027 as Skouries Project Drives New Production Era
Three-Year Production Outlook Points to Major Step-Change in Growth
Eldorado Gold Corporation has released its detailed guidance for 2026 and a three-year production outlook, signaling a transformative period for the company. By 2028, management expects gold output to rise as much as 41% compared to 2025, with copper joining as a major value driver when the pivotal Skouries project comes online.
Delayed Start at Skouries, but Fundamentals Remain Strong
The company confirmed that first concentrate production at Skouries is delayed by about one quarter, now targeted for early Q3 2026, and commercial production is expected in Q4. Despite this brief setback, Eldorado’s leadership emphasized that the fundamentals of the multi-decade project remain intact, and that Skouries will bring a “step-change” to both cash flow and the bottom line from late 2026 forward.
Output, Cost, and Capital Guidance: Shifting to Higher Margin Operations
The 2026 outlook features total gold production between 490,000 and 590,000 ounces—roughly an 11% increase from 2025’s midpoint—alongside 20 to 40 million pounds of copper, all at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) range of $1,670–$1,870 per ounce. Once Skouries goes commercial, Eldorado expects to achieve even lower operating costs at that site, reflected by Skouries’ AISC guidance of -$100 to $200 per ounce sold, thanks in part to valuable copper by-products.
| Year | Gold Production (oz) | Change vs 2025 | Copper Production (lbs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 490,000 - 590,000 | ~11% increase | 20 - 40 million |
| 2027 | 620,000 - 720,000 | ~40% increase | 50 - 70 million |
| 2028 | 640,000 - 740,000 | ~41% increase | 50 - 80 million |
2026 Guidance: Skouries to Drive Second-Half Weighted Output
Production in 2026 is set to be heavily weighted toward the second half of the year, as Skouries ramps up and Olympias transitions to higher capacity. Management expects approximately 65% of 2026’s gold output to come in H2, aligning with major project catalysts.
Capital expenditure will remain robust, with $375–$405 million earmarked for operations’ growth capital and $175–$185 million for Skouries project construction. Sustaining capital at operating sites is targeted at $140–$165 million, as the company also focuses $65 million on greenhouse gas mitigation and advancing the Perama Hill project.
Operational Highlights: Asset-by-Asset Strength and Upgrades
- Lamaque Complex (Canada): 2026 output between 185,000 and 200,000 ounces, with growth spending tied to development at Ormaque and a major paste plant build.
- Kisladag (Turkiye): Upgrades like a larger secondary crusher and HPGR screening are expected to mitigate geotechnical challenges and unlock higher throughput in the years ahead. 2026 production forecast: 105,000 – 130,000 ounces.
- Efemcukuru (Turkiye): Guidance in line with prior years (70,000 – 80,000 ounces), but costs are impacted by labor and energy inflation. Growth efforts focus on Kokarpinar expansion.
- Olympias (Greece): As the 650 ktpa mill expansion is completed in H2 2026, guidance rises to 70,000–80,000 ounces, alongside strong by-product output (silver, lead, zinc). Sustained modernization remains a focus.
- Skouries Project (Greece): Gold output between 60,000–100,000 ounces and 20–40 million pounds of copper projected for 2026; commercial ramp slated for Q4. Skouries' construction schedule lengthens due to equipment and regulatory delays, with mitigation plans in place.
By-Product and Exploration Upside: Leveraging Multiple Metals and New Growth
Olympias continues to deliver substantial silver (up to 1,750,000 ounces), lead, and zinc output, while Skouries introduces copper production as a new high-margin contributor. Exploration spending of $75–$85 million is expected, with resource conversion drilling and new discovery programs in Canada, Turkiye, and Greece supporting the growth runway.
Cost and Sensitivity Analysis: Currency and Commodity Movements Matter
With 2026 cost guidance anchored against robust gold ($4,000/oz), silver, and copper price assumptions, Eldorado has hedged about 50% of its Canadian dollar and Euro cost exposure. The company notes significant leverage to gold price moves, with every $500 shift in gold affecting all-in sustaining costs by ~$60/oz at its operations. Similar sensitivities apply to currency swings, though hedging limits downside risk.
| Commodity / Currency | 2026 Assumption |
|---|---|
| Gold ($/oz) | 4,000 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 45.00 |
| Copper ($/lb) | 5.00 |
Outlook: Positioned for Free Cash Flow Surge Starting H2 2026
While the Skouries project saw a brief delay, the company’s growth engine is running strong. By late 2026 and into 2027, Eldorado Gold expects to unlock higher margins and significant free cash flow fueled by a sharp rise in gold and copper output. This aligns with a broader strategy of consistent, low-risk production and disciplined capital allocation, underscored by continued exploration and asset optimization across its global portfolio.
For those watching gold producers poised for a step-change, Eldorado’s roadmap now centers on a shift to higher and more diversified output, just as copper becomes an increasingly vital battery metal in the global energy transition. Investors may want to monitor skouries’ ramp progress, commodity pricing, and project execution as Eldorado transitions to its next growth phase.
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