Click to view the earnings moves in TJX
TJX Posts Above-Plan Earnings, But Does History Favor a Big Move?
After TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) posted full-year and Q4 results that beat expectations on nearly every metric—and announced a 13% dividend increase plus $2.5–$2.75 billion in planned buybacks—traders could be forgiven for expecting fireworks. But a look at historical price action around earnings tells a more nuanced story.
Strong Earnings, Cautious Reaction
This quarter, TJX delivered:
- Q4 comp sales growth: +5% (above plan)
- Q4 pretax profit margin: 13.5%, up 1.9 pts vs last year
- Q4 diluted EPS: $1.58, up 28%
- Full-year comp sales: +5% (above plan)
- Full-year diluted EPS: $4.87, up 14%
- Dividend hike: +13% planned
- Buyback: $2.5–$2.75 billion in FY27
Despite these stellar results, shares recently traded at $158.74, up 1.0%. That's far less than the ±4.1% move options traders had been pricing in ahead of the release.
Do TJX Earnings Usually Lead to Big Stock Moves?
To understand what to watch next, let's look at how TJX shares have typically performed on and after past earnings days. For a full breakdown—including more quarters and data details—check out the TJX historical earnings stock performance page.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.2% | +1.6% | +1.9% | -1.6% | -0.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 83.3% | 75.0% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 16.7% | 25.0% | 41.7% |
Based on the last 12 quarters: TJX averages a +1.2% earnings day pop, with a tendency to open higher (+1.6%) but sometimes drifting lower into the close (-0.3%).
How Big Do Moves Usually Get?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Max Absolute Return | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Translation? Options sometimes price in more swing than the stock delivers. Today's actual move fits right in with history.
Stock Performance After Earnings: The Drift Tends Slightly Lower
| Stock Performance | 1 Day | 2 Days | 3 Days | 1 Week | 2 Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.6% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 27.3% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 72.7% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% |
Over the last 12 quarters, the day after earnings has seen an average -0.6% loss, with nearly 3 out of 4 instances posting a decline. The pattern holds for up to 2 weeks out, with just 45.5% of post-earnings periods finishing higher.
Spotlight: Today's Most Actively Traded Option
Today's busiest single-contract trade points to a wait-and-see approach among option players, rather than wild speculation:
| Option Contract | 27-Feb-26 167.5 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 527 |
| VWAP price | 0.20 |
| Open interest | 160 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.58 |
This out-of-the-money February 2026 call, trading at a steep discount to yesterday's price, suggests limited anticipation of a near-term rip in TJX shares—even as fundamentals impress.
Bottom Line: Is Strong Business Enough?
TJX’s earnings strength is undeniable, but the options market and historical returns warn that parabolic moves are rare. Still, the company’s robust cash flow, continued buybacks, and double-digit dividend hike provide attractive long-term tailwinds.
If you’re looking for more detail, the full TJX historical stock returns around earnings are a must-read for serious traders and investors.
As always, past performance does not guarantee future results. But with TJX’s consistency in both fundamentals and share price behavior, investors may find comfort—even if they're wishing for bigger fireworks.
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