Click to view the earnings moves in PEP
Did Pepsico's 4.1% Earnings-Day Pop Break the Mold?
Pepsico (PEP) delivered a surprise move today, with shares jumping 4.1% following its latest earnings announcement—easily topping the options market’s expected swing of ±3.8%. But does this move really stand out, or is it just another blip in the company’s earnings playbook?
Historical Moves: PEP’s Earnings Days Tell a Subtle Story
Looking back at the last dozen quarters, PEP has averaged a modest +0.4% return on earnings day, with upside outnumbering down days two-to-one. The stock typically opens +0.3% higher and drifts up just +0.1% by the close, showing a gentle upward bias over time. This makes today’s 4.1% jump quite the outlier, well above both the historical average and what traders priced in beforehand.
Want to dig into these numbers yourself? Check out the complete PEP earnings performance history here.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.4% | +0.3% | +1.5% | -1.6% | +0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 58.3% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 41.7% | 41.7% |
But what about volatility? The average absolute move on earnings is 3.1%, with max swings up to 7.5%—suggesting that while quiet moves are common, outliers like today aren’t unheard of.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 7.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
After the Spotlight: What Happens Next?
Beyond the initial jump, PEP’s post-earnings pattern is quietly bullish. Historically, the stock gains an average +0.9% on the day after earnings, and is up +1.3% a week later—moving higher two-thirds of the time. The odds tilt even more bullish at two weeks, with positive returns in 75% of cases.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.9% | +0.3% | +0.7% | +1.3% | +1.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 50.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 50.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 25.0% |
Options Buzz: The 06-Feb-26 160 Call Steals the Show
Options traders showed their hand today, with total volume reaching 30,485 contracts—well above normal. The day’s most actively traded single-leg option? The 06-Feb-26 160 Call. Here’s a quick snapshot:
| Option Contract | 06-Feb-26 160 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 2,062 |
| VWAP price | 1.93 |
| Open interest | 2,653 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 1.21 |
The Takeaway for PEP Watchers
Today’s strong earnings move put Pepsico at the top end of its historical performance band—and above what options traders had priced in. While history suggests PEP typically registers small moves on earnings day, the stock has a subtle but persistent bullish drift in the weeks that follow. Could today’s outsized pop mean momentum is building—or just a brief rally? Only time will tell, but as always, keep a close watch on trends after the news fades.
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