Click to view the earnings moves in AXP
Does American Express Have an Earnings Day Curse?
American Express (AXP) just dropped its latest earnings report, but if you’re hoping for a history of big post-earnings rallies, the data might surprise you. Let’s break down what usually happens when AXP reports—and what today’s options activity could be forecasting.
Looking Back: How Has AXP Actually Traded on Earnings Day?
Over the last 12 quarters, AXP’s earnings day has historically leaned bearish. The stock’s average move the day of earnings is -0.4%, and a hefty 75% of those announcements saw the stock drop. Even the open-to-close move was modestly positive at +0.4%, though downside outpaced upside 58% to 42% of the time.
Here’s a snapshot of the historical numbers:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.4% | -0.8% | +2.0% | -2.2% | +0.4% |
| % of Moves Up | 25.0% | 33.3% | 41.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 75.0% | 66.7% | 58.3% |
Want even more detailed breakdowns? Check out the full stats on AXP’s historical earnings price movement page.
How Big Are the Swings—And Should You Expect a Shock Move?
While directional moves were often skewed lower, AXP’s average magnitude of move (regardless of direction) on earnings day was about 3.9%. The biggest single-day move hit 7.3%, and the quietest was just 0.6%. Here’s a quick look at how wild these moves can get:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 3.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| Max Absolute Return | 7.3% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
What About the Post-Earnings Drift?
If you’re looking for a reversal or a follow-through, AXP’s track record after earnings is more mixed. The average return one day after earnings was -0.6%, but over three days and a week, the average turned positive, with a +1.0% return a week after earnings reported. But even these gains weren’t guaranteed—longer post-earnings moves saw nearly two-thirds of cases moving lower, suggesting volatility is the theme.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.6% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +1.0% | +0.5% |
| % of Moves Up | 41.7% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| % of Moves Down | 58.3% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 63.6% |
Options Market Spotlight: What’s Getting the Most Attention Today?
With today’s earnings drop, AXP saw 4,328 options trade hands. The single most actively traded option? A 24-Apr-26 320 strike call, which could signal traders are betting on a move above the current price of $315.11 in the coming months. Here are the quick stats:
| Option Contract | 24-Apr-26 320 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 319 |
| VWAP price | 0.57 |
| Open Interest | 2,127 |
| Yesterday's Closing Price | 1.51 |
This large volume on an out-of-the-money call, traded well below yesterday’s closing price, hints at traders trying to position for a big move—or hedge a portfolio into uncertainty.
What’s the Takeaway?
Over the last 12 quarters, AXP has disappointed more than it’s delivered on earnings day, but after the initial selloff, post-earnings rebounds have been common—sometimes strong, sometimes not. The options market’s current activity says traders are still betting on volatility ahead. For a deeper dive into historical earnings behavior, visit the full AXP historical earnings performance page.
If you’re watching AXP for a post-earnings surprise or fade, don’t just go by the headline numbers—historical tendencies and options activity suggest surprises happen more often than you’d think.
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