Click to view the earnings moves in TJX
TJX Surges 5.2% After Earnings Beat: Can This Rally Last?
Shares of TJX Companies leapt 5.2% today following a stunning first-quarter earnings report—handily outpacing the options market’s expected move of ±3.5%. With the company raising its full-year outlook and reporting robust comp sales and margins, it’s no surprise excitement is running high among investors. But does history suggest the gains will hold?
Inside the Blowout Quarter
TJX’s first-quarter numbers impressed on every level: consolidated comparable sales jumped 6%, net sales grew 9% to $14.3 billion, and diluted EPS soared 29% YoY to $1.19—all easily topping estimates. Management raised guidance across the board, signaling confidence heading into the rest of the year.
Today’s option volume reflected that optimism, with 8,528 contracts changing hands—well above normal levels. The options market’s forecast for a big move was certainly justified this time.
How Does TJX Stock Usually React Around Earnings?
Before you chase today’s rally, let’s ground things in the data. Historically, TJX stock averages a +1.4% move on earnings day. Notably, the stock gaps up at the open by an average of +1.8% (closing price to open), and 75% of earnings days see an overall positive move. However, the rest of the session tends to see some retracement—the open-to-close average is actually -0.3%. So while the initial pop is common, some steam is usually lost as the day goes on.
For in-depth stats, check the TJX historical earnings price movement page.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.4% | +1.8% | +1.9% | -1.7% | -0.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 75.0% | 83.3% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 25.0% | 16.7% | 50.0% |
On average, the stock moves to the high of the day (+1.9%) more than to the low (-1.7%), meaning upside volatility tends to win out over downside. But as the negative open-to-close average reminds us, fading the post-earnings pop isn’t unheard of.
How Big Are the Moves—And How Does Today Compare?
Today’s 5.2% spike isn’t entirely out of character, but it’s much larger than the average earnings day move. Looking at the absolute average returns, TJX usually sees just a 2.7% absolute move (regardless of direction) on earnings, with a maximum historical move of 6.1%. So today’s pop is toward the high end, but not unprecedented.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% |
| Max Absolute Return | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Post-Earnings Drift: Will Today’s Gains Hold?
If you’re hoping for further upside after the earnings run, the data offers a word of caution. Historically, TJX tends to drift lower the day after earnings, with an average 1-day loss of -0.5% and nearly three-quarters of post-earnings sessions ending down. Even one week and two weeks out, the average gains are only +0.4% and +0.3%, with a modest 54.5% win rate.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.5% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.4% | +0.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 27.3% | 45.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 72.7% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
Options Traders Flock to 22-May-26 160 Call
One standout from today’s action: the 22-May-26 160 Call was the most actively traded single-leg option on TJX. Here’s a snapshot of that contract:
| Option Contract | 22-May-26 160 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 925 |
| VWAP price | 1.37 |
| Open interest | 579 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.30 |
Bottom Line: Celebrate the Beat, But Watch for the Fade
TJX crushed expectations this quarter, and management’s bullish guidance will give bulls plenty to celebrate. Yet, as the historical data above shows, post-earnings excitement often fades—at least in the short run. For anyone holding (or trading) the stock, it’s worth keeping these probabilities top of mind. Will the strong retail environment and upbeat outlook buck the historical trend, or could we see a typical post-earnings drift?
Curious about more details on past earnings moves? Dive deeper at the TJX earnings movement stats page. Whatever comes next, today’s report confirms TJX remains a retail powerhouse worth watching.
Contact Information:
If you have feedback or concerns about the content, please feel free to reach out to us via email at support@marketchameleon.com.
About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:
Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.
NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.
Disclosure: This article was generated with the assistance of AI