Click to view the earnings moves in DE
Deere’s Big Earnings Day Move: Is This Drop Bigger Than Usual?
Deere (DE) just reported its second quarter earnings, posting net income of $1.773 billion. But if you were hoping for a post-earnings pop, the market had other ideas. Shares dropped -7.5% today—an even bigger swing than the options market was bracing for, which had priced in a move of around ±5.4%. Is this sharp drop outside of the norm for Deere around earnings time?
How Today’s Move Compares to Deere’s Earnings History
Today’s -7.5% move isn’t just above average—it’s well above Deere’s typical reaction following earnings. Over the last 12 quarters, the stock moved an average of -0.9% in either direction, with two-thirds of those moves actually resulting in downside. Meanwhile, traders have seen an average initial gap of -1.4% from the previous close to the open, before the stock typically drifted a modest +0.4% from open to close.
If you want to investigate all of Deere’s historical price moves after earnings, you can check out the full earnings page here.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.9% | -1.4% | +2.9% | -2.0% | +0.4% |
| % of Moves Up | 33.3% | 33.3% | 41.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 66.7% | 66.7% | 58.3% |
How Big Are Typical Earnings Moves for DE?
It’s one thing to look at average direction, but what about the size of the swings? Historically, the absolute average move for DE on earnings day is 5.8%, with a maximum seen at 11.6%. That means today’s drop is actually on the higher end, but not entirely unprecedented if you look at past volatility during earnings windows.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% |
| Max Absolute Return | 11.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| Min Absolute Return | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
What Happens After Earnings Day?
For those eyeing what’s next, the stock’s typical move after earnings can offer some perspective. Historically, DE posts an average return of +0.7% in the session right after earnings, with about 64% of those days ending higher. But those post-earnings gains tend to fade in the days that follow, with returns dropping to +0.2% a week later and a slight negative (-0.5%) after two weeks.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.2% | -0.5% |
| % of Moves Up | 63.6% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 36.4% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
Action in the Options Market: A Notable Bet on a Bounce?
Alongside today’s tumble, options activity picked up. The most heavily traded single-leg option was the 18-Jun-26 700 C contract. Here’s a snapshot of that trade:
| Option Contract | 18-Jun-26 700 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 180 |
| VWAP price | 0.35 |
| Open interest | 876 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 1.00 |
With options traders chasing contracts far out of the money ($700 strike, nearly $200 above the latest share price), it suggests that some in the market are still betting on a snap-back rally—despite today’s sell-off. Volume was substantial, even as volatility was high.
Key Takeaway: Volatility is the Norm, Not the Exception
Deere’s post-earnings action today may seem dramatic, but history shows the stock is no stranger to large moves after results. Whether you view this as an overreaction or the first salvo in a new trend, knowing the typical moves and odds can help make sense of today’s volatility. If you want to dig deeper into all of Deere’s past post-earnings moves, check the full statistics here.
With options traders still swinging for the fences, the next few days may offer even more twists for DE. Will the history of quick rebounds repeat itself, or is this the start of a deeper pullback? For now, history tells us: expect the unexpected when Deere reports earnings.
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