This MU Calendar Put Spread Targets 405% Return
Bearish play with a target stock price of $70
Strategy has +405% upside potential and 24% undervalued
|Strategy: Long MU Calendar Put Spread|
|Sell 19-Jan-24 70 Put||1.38|
|Buy 16-Feb-24 70 Put||2.02|
Option Profit Calculator Results for MU Calendar Spread at 19-Jan-24 Expiration
In this scenario, the optimal stock price for the option strategy would be $70.00 on the date of the first expiration, January 19, 2024. This is equal to the strike price of the options in the spread. Since there is notable downward pressure in both the market and MU, and the strikes are below the current stock price of $76.76, the spread is taking advantage of the market's bearish bias. If the stock price is $70.00 at expiration, we can benefit from the 19-Jan-24 put, which we sold, expiring worthless, and the option that we are long, the 16-Feb-24 put, will still have time premium built in.
Since we do now know what the exact implied volatility will be on January 19, we can use our historical data to make an educated estimate to help us calculate the value of the 16-Feb-24 option. Applying the median historical implied volatility of 42.2 from similar options, the theoretical value of the put is 3.23 at the date of the 19-Jan-24 expiration. Using the above assumptions gives us a potential upside of +405% for this calendar spread.
MU Calendar Spread Value vs. Market Price
According to Market Chameleon estimated value, MU Calendar Spread is trading at a 24% discount to historical benchmark.
If we use historical data to measure how similar spreads in MU were priced in the market, the 4-year average price was 0.84, with a high mark of 1.08 and a low of 0.63.
Currently, the calendar put spread is bid at 0.58 and offered at 0.64. The midpoint of the spread is 0.61.
If we use 0.84 as our historical fair value benchmark, the current market ask price is at a 24% discount, while the current market midpoint represents a 28% discount.
|Current Price||Historical Values of Similar Spreads|
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