KRE Debit Put Spread Appears to be Undervalued at $2.80


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This KRE Debit Put Spread Could Pay 25% Return in 6 Days

Bearish play with a target stock price of $61.50 or below

Strategy has +25% upside potential and 11% undervalued


Expiration08-Nov-24
Buy65 Put
Sell61.5 Put
Debit:$2.80


SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF stock price has dropped -0.9% today to $59.27. Based on moving averages, KRE has been in a uptrend since October 8, but the current price is still in an ideal range for this spread. Based on historical stock price behavior, this spread for KRE has a theoretical 85% success rate.

Option Profit Calculator for KRE Put Spread at 08-Nov-24 Expiration

If KRE stock price at expiration is at or below $61.50, this spread has a 25% upside potential

The optimal stock price for this option strategy is to close at or below $61.50 on the expiration date, November 8, 2024. In that scenario, both puts would be in-the-money, so the spread would be worth the maximum value of 3.50. That would equate to the potential upside of +25% for this put spread with 6 days left to expiration.

The maximum gain will be realized if the stock price is at or below 61.50. The maximum gain is $0.70

The breakeven point is at 62.20, which is 5.0% above the current spot price.

The maximum loss will occur when the stock price is at or above 65. The max loss is $2.80.

KRE Spread Current Market Price vs. Historical Average

KRE Put Spread is trading at a 11% discount to historical average.

Using historical data to measure how a similar spread in KRE was priced in the market, the 4-year average value was 3.14, with a high mark of 3.35 and a low of 2.14.

Currently, this vertical put spread is bid at 2.55 and offered at 2.80. The midpoint of the spread is 2.68.

If we use 3.14 as our historical fair value benchmark, the current market ask price is at a 11% discount, while the current market midpoint represents a 15% discount.

Current PriceHistorical Values of Similar Spreads
BidAskMidpointAverageHighLow
2.552.802.683.143.352.14
Market Chameleon captures daily records of market data to calculate historical benchmarks and generate estimated values.

Takeaway

The KRE put spread we've identified here can be a good way to play a bearish outlook because the option strategy has a +25% upside potential, is 11% underpriced relative to historical measures, and will benefit from a stock price at or below $61.50.

See how Market Chameleon can help you make smarter and more efficient trades!



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NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated And may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices And were Not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.


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