Alcoa expects strong Q1, helped by higher metal prices, but tariffs adding uncertainty

Seeking Alpha News (Wed, 12-Mar 6:52 PM)

Tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum are already creating significant uncertainty in the market, but overall Alcoa (NYSE:AA) still expects a strong Q1, CFO Molly Beerman said Wednesday at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference; shares closed +4% on the day.

"Some customers are rushing to secure supply ahead of the tariffs, while others are playing wait and see, to see how the final tariff structure will exist," Beerman said, according to Dow Jones. "As a result this quarter, we do have more uncertainty in both our revenue and our working capital that is more than normal."

Alcoa (NYSE:AA) is working closely with the Trump administration, as well as trade groups in the U.S. and Canada, to decipher the effects of the tariffs, the CFO told the conference. "While we're very supportive of [the administration's] efforts to improve the industry, as well as strengthen U.S. manufacturing jobs, we do see that there could be some harm from the tariffs," adding that the company is focused on gaining a Canadian exemption.

Alcoa (AA) has two smelters in the U.S. that produce ~290K metric tons/year of aluminum, both of which stand to benefit from the tariffs, Beerman said, but "our Canadian operations produce three times that amount," and a 25% tariff on the aluminum that Alcoa produces in Canada would be a net negative for the company, resulting in the loss of tens of millions of dollars; the loss likely would not hurt Q1 results, but could affect future earnings, she said.

The company "would not make a decision on building a new smelter based on tariffs," the CFO also said. "These are decisions that you’re looking out 20-40 years, adding that it could restart some of its idle U.S. capacity, although those smelters have not been run for a very long time and would be very expensive to restart.

CEO Bill Oplinger recently sounded a more alarmist tone, saying 25% tariffs on aluminum imports could impact ~100K U.S. jobs and on its own would not cause higher U.S. production.