As Q1 earnings from some of retail’s biggest names approach, Raymond James expects tariffs will dominate earnings calls and stock narratives but thinks it’s unlikely that the financial impacts will be provided given the rapidly changing environment.

As such, Raymond James has not changed its FY26 estimates but expects several names will be “hurt the most” given their exposure to tariffed countries and price elasticity. These include Beyond (BYON), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), FIGS (FIG), Under Armour (UA, UAA), and Capri (CPRI).

While there has been a lot of talk around tariffs, the foreign exchange environment has become more bullish for U.S. companies thanks to the recent weakness of the U.S. dollar, especially versus the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen. This should prove to be an incremental positive for most companies versus prior 2025 guidance.

Within Raymond James’ coverage, On Holdings (NYSE:ONON) remains a Strong Buy as recent checks show direct-to-consumer growth was consistent in the first quarter versus Q4. Other positives include demand outstripping supply at the wholesale level, new product launches, and a large runway for revenue and margin expansion. Working against the company is its high level of sourcing out of Vietnam.

Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK) is also in a strong position into fiscal fourth quarter results, earning an upgrade to Strong buy from Outperform. While the deceleration in HOKA sales is known, there still remains a “significant” long-term runway. Additionally, the company maintains a strong balance sheet, margins, and free cash flow.

“Our sum-of-the-parts supports a significantly higher stock,” Raymond James said in Thursday’s upgrade.  

Despite the vote of confidence for On Holdings (NYSE:ONON) and Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK), both are trading more than 6% lower on Thursday in sympathy with category weakness as profit-taking off Wednesday’s meteoric rally leaves the footwear sector broadly lower.