The likelihood of a U.S. recession is climbing, according to SA Sentiment data from the most recent three-month period. The trailing indicator polls Seeking Alpha subscribers on the chance of a recession over the next 12 months, and that probability appears to be on the rise, likely due to the uncertainty surrounding trade policy and tariffs.

Check out the chart below, where the x-axis represents the percentage of SA users and the y-axis represents the likelihood of a recession.

 

Based on over 1,000 monthly responses, 78% saw the chance of recession at "less than 50%" back in January, with that number declining to 57% as of March. On the flip side, those predicting a recession at "50% or more" stood at 22% in January, and that number has now increased to 43%. 

Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast also polled subscribers on which stock sector is best for a recession, with most users answering "dividends." Dividend investing can be lucrative during a recession given the steady stream of income and less volatility often associated with dividend stock prices.